When the Packers beat the Bengals in Week 6, those who took them advanced to Week 7. After all, thats how Survivor works. However, at the time, they didnt realize that pick considered by some to be too obvious would also potentially save them from themselves in Week 9.
Having Green Bay as an option going into their matchup with the Panthers at home seemed like a luxury for the roughly one-third of still-alive pool entrants who hadnt picked the Packers by Week 9. Alas, when they lost, that edge went out the window. A favorite of -500 on the money line falling usually does more damage than it did in Circas Survivor contest, but the lack of availability kept the carnage down.
For the first five weeks, options were abundant, and there were infinite potential paths. Contest sizes can vary, from the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the variety of entrants you compete against in a Yahoo Football Survival League, but no matter the size, the percentage of original entrants remaining is likely the same.
After nine weeks, whether you started with 20, 200, or 2000, theres likely around 11% of original entrants left in your Survivor pool.
Going forward, we dont just break down the best choices and what youre giving up by using them, but also the estimated percentage of entrants who still have them available (thanks to Circas availability matrix).
How likely is a team to win and youll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the money line, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).
*Weve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold
Its not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you cant use it again. What is simple is that if youre going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, youll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. Its an unnerving thought.
Heres a list of the betting markets current top-18 teams and an estimation of their value to the point spread:
Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that youre giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in November is nerve-racking, but doing so at some point in December is real.
Weve avoided using the Bills as long as we could, letting others pick them and survive or occasionally, get them knocked out.
While wed prefer using the Bills at home, this will be the first (and potentially only) time that we back a team on the road with our top pick. Passing on Buffalo at home has given us the chance to take the biggest favorite on the board at a time when 69% of remaining entrants are forced to look elsewhere.
Estimated Availability: 31%
As weve referenced in previous weeks, the risk of saving the Bills much further is that their schedule gets tougher, but the one game where theyd be a similar-sized favorite is against Cincinnati in Week 14. However, the looming potential return of Joe Burrow complicates that.
A robust internet search shows a series of optimistic reports from the Bengals about their star quarterbacks rehab. That said, Joe Flacco is playing as well as could be expected, and Cincinnatis horrendous defense has undermined the Bengals offense and may do so with Burrow at the helm. Whenever that happens to be.
I cant believe there are as many entrants who havent used the Broncos as there are, with 32% still able to take Denver on Thursday night. We burned them in Week 1 something weve had to acknowledge when theyve since been a viable choice against the Bengals (Week 4), at the Jets in London (Week 6) and before the narrowest of escapes versus the Giants (Week 7).
Between some odd results on Thursday nights, the return of Brock Bowers providing the Raiders offense a notable boost last week, and the Broncos being without Patrick Surtain again, theres reason to be a little worried about picking Denver here. However, if youve used the Bills but havent taken the Broncos, this is really the time to finally do it.
Estimated Availability: 32%
Injuries can change the picture, but the Broncos have two games with the Chiefs and host the Packers among the back half of their schedule. Taking Denver in Las Vegas when you can just fade the Raiders now seems like youre asking for trouble, and the projected line for a visit from the Jaguars is lower than you might expect.
Week 5s Lions users better hope one of the above is available, but they likely never imagined that the rematch against the team that knocked Detroit out of the playoffs last season would be something that would even be a consideration here. However, with Jayden Daniels out, and it becoming clearer to the market that the Commanders defense cant stop much of anything, Detroit is a nearly double-digit favorite on the road.
Estimated Availability: 29.7%
Going back to Week 5, and in other weeks where it was also fashionable to pick the Lions to survive, our plan has always been to save Detroit for Week 12. That the Lions could draw attention this week, only makes that strategy more attractive, given the estimated availability percentage will either go down, or the Lions will lose and those who pick them will be out.
With each of the three biggest favorites over two-thirds used, someone is bound to get saved from themselves again this week.
Dont worry, when youve avoided the loss of one of the best options because you already used them, you can pretend you wouldnt have picked them anyway. We wont tell.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.