Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Matchups highlight: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (vs. Dallas Cowboys). He helped orchestrate the Broncos’ remarkable comeback against the New York Giants last week, in the process scoring 25.58 of his career-best 39.96 fantasy points in the game’s final six minutes, and now he draws by far the position’s most favorable matchup. The Cowboys have seen an opposing quarterback score 25-plus fantasy points in four of their seven games, and they’re the second team in NFL history to see an opposing quarterback score at least 17.5 points in each of their first seven contests. The Cowboys’ high-octane offense will be difficult for even the Broncos’ vaunted defense to contain, evidenced by the two teams’ week-high 50.5 over/under, giving Nix plenty of chances to capitalize upon the matchup.
Others to like: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Pittsburgh Steelers); Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (at Baltimore Ravens).
Matchup to avoid: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (vs. Cleveland Browns). He’s playing the best football of his young career over the past six weeks, averaging 21.9 fantasy points in that span, and he brings a level of mobility that makes him a near-lock for fantasy lineups in a week with six teams on a bye. Nevertheless, Maye’s next two matchups are clearly the toughest on his 2025 schedule (CLE, ATL), and they’ll gauge the extent of his breakthrough. Since Lamar Jackson scored 26.30 points against them in Week 2, the Browns’ defense has limited opposing QB starters to 10.9 PPG. The Patriots are favored by more than a score (-7.5), so Maye also might not need to do much in this contest.
Matchups highlight: Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers (vs. Buffalo Bills). In a big bye week, fantasy managers need to dig deeper into the player pool, and a running back from a clear timeshare might not strike their fancy. In Dowdle’s case, it’s his exceptional recent performance — 76.9 fantasy points with league-leading numbers in rushing yards over expected (+156) and 15 mph runs (16) over the past three weeks — that stands out when examining this matchup. One of the Bills’ defensive weaknesses this season has been against the run, and specifically speedy backs. They’ve allowed the league’s greatest rates of explosive rushing plays (19.0%) and carries of 15-plus mph (30.7%), per Next Gen Stats.
Others to like: D’Andre Swift, Bears (at Ravens); J.K. Dobbins, Broncos (vs. Cowboys).
Matchup to avoid: Quinshon Judkins, Browns (at Patriots). He’s coming off a breakthrough performance, scoring three rushing touchdowns and 26.4 fantasy points in Week 7, but a lot of it had to do with the comfy-cozy Miami Dolphins matchup. Over the past three weeks, the Dolphins have allowed 81.6 combined points to Dowdle, Kimani Vidal and Judkins. (As a side note for Bijan Robinson managers, he’s the Dolphins’ next opponent!) The Patriots, meanwhile, surrendered 26.2 points to De’Von Achane in Week 2, but otherwise haven’t seen any other individual running back exceed 13.1 points. They’re also the fourth-best defense at preventing explosive rushing plays (6.4%), which means bumpier terrain for Judkins on Sunday.
Matchups highlight: Matthew Golden, Packers (at Steelers). Consider the rookie a sleeper in this bye-heavy week, largely because of his role as the Packers’ primary slot receiver. In the team’s two games since their Week 5 bye, he has run 53% of his routes out of the slot and has played at least 70% of the offensive snaps in each game, the first time he has been on the field that often. The opposing Steelers, meanwhile, have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers, in large part due to the struggles of nickel Jalen Ramsey. The six-time Pro Bowler has allowed a whopping 69.9 fantasy points on 31 targets as the nearest defender this season, per Next Gen Stats.
Others to like: Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor, Tennessee Titans (at Indianapolis Colts); Courtland Sutton, Broncos (vs. Cowboys).
Matchup to avoid: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins (at Atlanta Falcons). The Dolphins’ offense is a flat-out mess, posting the fifth-worst Offensive Efficiency rating in the team’s three games since Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury, and now they tangle with one of the strongest-performing defenses all season in the Falcons. Thanks to the play of CBs A.J. Terrell Jr. and Mike Hughes, who have surrendered a combined 67.3 fantasy points on 51 targets as the nearest defender, the Falcons have seen only two wide receivers exceed 11.1 points against them all season (Emeka Egbuka, 23.6, in Week 1; and Deebo Samuel, 20.1, in Week 4).
Matchups highlight: Mason Taylor, New York Jets (at Cincinnati Bengals). He’s again a worthwhile bye-week fill-in, sporting an 18.3% target share that ranks top 10 at the position. The opposing Bengals have been rather generous to opposing tight ends, including raising rookie Harold Fannin Jr.’s fantasy profile with a breakthrough in Week 1, and most recently restoring the Steelers’ duo of Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith to the limelight. For the season, the Bengals have surrendered the most fantasy points per game (22.3), Adjusted FPA (+7.3) and games of 15-plus points (3) to the position, and their 2.19 points per target afforded to TEs ranks third most.
Matchup to avoid: Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders (at Kansas City Chiefs). He’ll remain an integral part of the Commanders’ offense, especially should multiple of the team’s top three wide receivers again sit due to injury, but a prospective switch to Marcus Mariota, should Jayden Daniels hamstring injury keep him on the sidelines, would take Ertz’s fantasy potential backwards. Ertz managed a 16.4% target share and only 12.9 fantasy points in Mariota’s Weeks 3-4 starts, and he saw only one target among Mariota’s 10 passing attempts in relief last week. The Chiefs also represent one of the position’s toughest matchups, having seen only one tight end exceed 10 points against them all season (Sam LaPorta’s 16.5 in Week 6).