Going into the Week 7 of Thursday Night Football, it is worth noting a small sample size wrinkle this season. This will be the sixth divisional matchup on Thursday, and divisional matchups are always considered a bit weird and inherently risky to back favorites because coaches are familiar with one another’s tendencies and because players know it’s a path to get back into a divisional race.
Of the six Thursday games already played, the only one in which the favorite covered the spread was the Packers over the Commanders in Week 2, and that was the lone non-divisional matchup. The Seahawks did also cover and win against the Cardinals in Week 4, but Seattle opened as the underdog and closed as the favorite. Other than that, the Cowboys covered Week 1 at the Eagles, the Dolphins covered Week 3 at Buffalo, San Francisco won outright at the Rams in Week 5, and the Giants beat the Eagles outright last week in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The combination of short weeks and divisional matchups providing a boost to underdogs is no surprise.
This week we have the Cincinnati Bengals playing at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
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This spread falls perfectly in line with market-based power rankings. The Bengals are the 30th-ranked team with a -6 rating, and the Steelers are 15th with a plus-0.9 rating. If we take the difference, it is Steelers -6.9 on a neutral site, but when you factor in the +1.5 home-field advantage, then we land at Pittsburgh as a -5.4 point favorite.
The Bengals are now on their third starting QB this season with the recent addition of Joe Flacco. Therefore there needs to be a bit of manual adjustments to the line. Burrow started the first two games and was typical Early-Season Woe Joe; he was not playing very well. Jake Browning took over and was an abject disaster. In all three of Brownings starts, the Bengals had just 3 points entering the fourth quarter while facing a double-digit deficit. Any positive notes were simply garbage-time exceptions. If we combine Joe Burrows slow start with Brownings Issues, the manual adjustment for Flacco gives an upgrade to the Bengals.
I was really hoping to get Bengals +6 at some point, but I knew that would be short-lived and a matter of timing the market perfectly. But it is not coming. The market signals show this is going to 5. if anything. I am going to take the 5.5 now and sprinkle some home underdog moneyline at +225. My recommendation here is to spread the exposure out to two-thirds on the spread and one-third on the moneyline.
The bet: Bengals +5.5 (-110), Bengals +225 moneyline
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When BetMGM reopened the odds for this game on Sunday night at the conclusion of Week 6 games for these teams, the price was 42.5. Looking at the line history, the line moved up to 43 on Tuesday morning, and just 6 minutes later it moved to 43.5. Looking across the market and also studying the line histories tells a similar story. I can make a strong educated guess this was played by a syndicate or a sharp service that released over 42.5 as an official play. I do not think we will see that price again. I also do not think this number reaches 44, because that’s a key number in NFL totals and it would certainly invite some resistance into the market. It feels like it is going to stick right here at 43.5 with some 43s in the market. I absolutely have no opinion on the total at this price. You never have to bet something, so this is a total skip for me. Perhaps there is a way to play some of the over sentiment into a prop angle that has yet to move.
The bet: None
Let’s understand the perspective of evaluating a marketplace. BetMGM is the only book in the market to open this prop up north of 70.5 yards (it was 72.5), with some books coming in as low as 67.5 as the opening number. Furthermore, BetMGM is the only book to reduce the number and lower the total yards since the opening lines. This indicates to me that BetMGM took action on their under, while bettors shopping for an over on Chase receiving yards went to other books, and there was asymmetric risk for the traders at BetMGM regarding the handle on this prop.
As a reaction, the line for Chase dropped to 70.5, now the lowest in the market, to invite some under money. However, BetMGM has been the exception to the rule, and therefore I think it is advantageous to go ahead and take the over there and think this jumps up a few yards before kickoff. Flacco always slings it and feeds his top weapons, and Chase is a lab-made prototype for an elite WR. The best way to play the line move toward the over now is to take it now.
The bet: Chase over 70.5 receiving yards
Going into this game I have three bets and have lined up my exposure risking roughly one unit in the following ways: half a unit on the spread, and a quarter unit on the moneyline and player prop. Fully flushed out it looks like:
Bengals +5.5 (-110, 0.55u to win 0.5u)Bengals moneyline (+225, 0.25u to win 0.5625u)JaMarr Chase over 70.5 receiving yards (0.2925u to win 0.25u)