The most difficult players to project before an NBA season are the rookies, because so much is based upon how prepared they are for the speed, power and explosiveness of the NBA game. There is no other league in the world that can truly compare with what the young players will face when they make it to the league with Jerry West’s silhouette on the logo.
Some players are more ready to make an impact right away, while others may never catch up with the NBA game. Then there are the players that just need time, and either during their rookie season or perhaps in the offseason after, the switch flips and they find that they’re ready to ball. As you prepare for your fantasy basketball drafts, it will be up to you to identify which players fit into which category and pick accordingly.
That’s where I come in.
Even as the playoffs were still going, I was already deep into NBA draft research with an eye on how their skills might fit on the teams that could draft them. Then I went out to the desert and scouted the Las Vegas Summer League to watch the top prospects in person. I wanted to see how they moved, what their energy looked like and whether they seemed to have that extra bit of dog in them that will help them transition to the NBA.
Let’s take a look at the top-10 rookies and when you should consider taking them in your fantasy basketball drafts.
Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Dallas Mavericks: Flagg has been touted for years as a future NBA superstar, and the outlook for his rookie season is more similar to the last historically touted rookie, Victor Wembanyama two seasons ago, than any of the rookies in last season’s class. Flagg led his college team, the Duke Blue Devils, in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals per game. He showed me in the Las Vegas Summer League that he had the size, strength and mindset to have an immediate impact at the NBA level.
The Mavericks have a roster strong enough to compete for the playoffs but a distinct hole in the perimeter offense with Kyrie Irving (ACL) sidelined for at least the first half of the season. As such, the door is open for Flagg to be the primary offensive threat from the wing for the Mavs from the start. I have him projected firmly in my preseason fantasy hoops top 50, and conservatively expect him to be drafted in the first four rounds.
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Outside of Flagg, there are several other rookies with the talent to produce fantasy-worthy numbers if things work out. But they aren’t necessarily guaranteed to do so from the opening tip, or even in the opening months of the season. Let’s talk about some of the ones with the best opportunity to produce in a timely enough fashion to be worthy of being drafted in fantasy hoops leagues.
Ace Bailey, SF/PF, Utah Jazz: He was considered one of the three most talented and NBA-ready players in the class, along with Flagg and Bailey’s college teammate Dylan Harper. But while Harper was drafted to a San Antonio Spurs team with plenty of quality depth at his position, Bailey was drafted to become the offensive centerpiece for a rebuilding Jazz squad. Bailey has a legitimate chance to be the team’s leading scorer as a rookie, and is the most likely rookie outside of Flagg to produce impact fantasy hoops numbers from the start.
Dylan Harper, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs: Outside of Flagg, Harper was the most impressive rookie I saw play at the Las Vegas Summer League. His skill set, size and athleticism popped and I gave him the credit to favorably compare his game to that of rookie Brandon Roy — arguably the most impressive rookie guard performance I’ve seen in two decades of scouting the Summer League. If Harper had been drafted to a team that needed to utilize him to the fullest, he would likely be draftable in at least the middle rounds.
Instead, the Spurs feature All-Star point guard De’Aaron Fox, along with reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle and young veterans Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson on the wings. The Spurs have made it clear Harper is a key part of their future, but it is hard to see where he will have a fantasy-worthy impact right away. Harper could grow into it during the season, and his talent and upside are such that he could be worth stashing on a fantasy hoops bench even if he’s not able to put up big numbers right away.
Egor Demin, PG, Brooklyn Nets: Demin is the most likely to produce right away among the five first-round picks the Nets had in this year’s draft. Demin is a big point guard who fits well in the starting backcourt next to undersized scorer Cam Thomas. Demin has been dealing with plantar fascia issues that could slow him at the start of the season, but once healthy Demin could be the type of all-category producer that has value in both points and category leagues.
VJ Edgecombe, SG, Philadelphia 76ers: The Baylor product currently projects as a starting wing on the 76ers, particularly while Jared McCain is out. Edgecombe possesses explosive leaping ability and quickness on the wing, which helps him to be a finisher in the lane and on the fast break as well as helping defensively. He is an excellent defender that could contribute in steals and even blocks, a nice bonus for a guard. Edgecombe’s projected role doesn’t scream big numbers, as he’s not a long-range shooter, but he has talent, opportunity and upside, which could be worth a late-round flyer in fantasy hoops drafts.
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Tre Johnson, SG, Washington Wizards: Johnson could be one of the best 3-point shooters in this year’s class because he can shoot with both volume and accuracy off both the spot-up and the dribble. Johnson’s ability to create his own shot is a boon for a rebuilding Wizards squad that doesn’t have much perimeter talent. He could be worth a late-round flyer in fantasy hoops leagues because, if he can reach his upside as an upper-teens scorer with potentially the most 3-pointers in the rookie class, he could end up developing into a flex starter before the season ends.
Kon Knueppel, SG, Charlotte Hornets: Knueppel also has a case as the best shooter in this draft class, but he is known more for his spot-up shooting than his ability to create. There is fantasy value in being a knock-down 3-point shooter playing off of talented creator/scorer types. With LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Collin Sexton doing more creating and scoring, and thus drawing more defensive attention, Knueppel could get more open shots against defenses not keyed on him. It isn’t clear whether Knueppel will generate the volume to be of value in points leagues, but his ability to put up large numbers of 3-pointers could make him worthy of roster consideration in category leagues.
Jeremiah Fears, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans: The former Sooner is a (excuse the pun) fearless shooter/scorer on the wing, and he could end up getting more minutes for the Pelicans early in the season because Dejounte Murray is sidelined until the New Year. Fears still projects as a sixth man at best, so it isn’t clear he’ll post fantasy-worthy numbers, but he is worth keeping an eye on as a free agent with upside.
Khaman Maluach, C, Phoenix Suns: Maluach was drafted as a defensive role player in the middle for the Suns. He will likely come off the bench to begin the season, but keep in mind that he’s backing up Mark Williams. Williams has missed 140 of 246 possible games in his career, never playing more than 44 games in any of his three NBA seasons. If Maluach ends up getting starter’s minutes, his shot blocking could be of interest in category leagues.
Nique Clifford, SG, Sacramento Kings: Clifford deserves a mention here. He’s an older rookie at 23 years old, and after an impressive fifth season in college he turned in a dominant performance at the Las Vegas Summer League. He is set to back up DeMar DeRozan, so presumably he wouldn’t get enough minutes early on, but he’s another free agent I’ll have my eye on once the season begins.
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I agree with your point of view and found this very insightful.