Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats, unless otherwise noted.
Let the doubters keep doubting when it comes to Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. He finished last season as fantasy’s No. 4 QB, behind Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Two of those fellows will not be repeating their achievement because of injury. Mayfield enters Sunday’s game against the San Francisco 49ers third in points among QBs, behind Allen and Patrick Mahomes, and the Bucs’ terrific rookie WR Emeka Egbuka is already a star.
I must admit to being a bit surprised at Mayfield’s tepid rankings on ESPN and other sites this week. What more must we see to rank him better? Mayfield is not accumulating passing yards or touchdown passes like he did last season, but throwing only one interception in five games is important. The Egbuka addition has been critical. Mayfield’s yards per attempt is up, and Egbuka is one of three wide receivers averaging 20 PPR points per game. It all looks sustainable.
The 49ers are in the middle of the pack in preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks and wide receivers, so expect another great outing from this duo. How about this: Expect greatness every week! Some may wish to float Egbuka’s name in fantasy trades, since veteran Mike Evans (hamstring) should return to the lineup soon. Nah, that makes things better for everyone. Who can stop this offense with Egbuka, Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and two solid running backs? Trade for Mayfield and Egbuka with confidence.
Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
Judkins missed Week 1 due to his contract situation and not an injury, and since then he has turned 18 rushes per game into 87 rushing yards per game. There aren’t many running backs with this volume and production. Judkins, still available in more than 10% of ESPN standard leagues (how is this possible?), appears a better bet than Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty to accumulate numbers, though I like Jeanty and think he has a big Week 6, too. Judkins surely gets to run behind a better O-line, and he averages 4.8 yards per rush. He breaks tackles. He is bigger than Jeanty. Judkins is the safer RB1.
Other RB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
McMillan averages 11.8 fantasy points per game, which isn’t particularly noteworthy, but more people would notice him if he scored a touchdown or two. Entering Week 6, McMillan has the second-most points among WRs without a touchdown (to New England Patriots vet Stefon Diggs), and for most receivers, touchdowns can be arbitrary. That changes against the woeful Cowboys secondary. McMillan is tied for seventh among WRs in targets, as there are no other Panthers stealing from him. This is McMillan’s show. The Cowboys can’t stop it. McMillan isn’t Egbuka as far as rookies go, but if QB Bryce Young develops just a little more, he should be a WR2 option.
Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn’t surprise: