The first few weeks of the NFL season were relatively calm, in terms of huge upsets.
But everyone knew they were coming eventually. And there were a few in Week 5.
The Los Angeles Rams were the first one. On Thursday night they lost as an 8.5-point favorite to a San Francisco 49ers team dealing with multiple injuries. On Sunday, the Cardinals lost straight up as a 7.5-point favorite to the Titans, and in the Sunday night game the Bills lost to the Patriots as 8-point favorites. Throw in the Broncos’ win over the Eagles when they were 4-point underdogs, and even the Jaguars win over the Chiefs on Monday night as a 3.5-point underdog, and there was plenty of chaos to go around.
Here are the top five betting storylines for Week 6 of the NFL season, with odds from BetMGM:
Two weeks ago there was one of the worst bad beats against the spread you’ll see, as the Eagles not only blocked a field goal to save a win over the Rams but returned it for a touchdown to cover the spread.
Players at Yahoo Sports Survival Football at least 23.88% of them who were alive for Week 5 had a bad beat they’ll remember for a while.
The Cardinals were the most popular team in Yahoo’s survival pools, and presumably on a bunch of teasers, moneyline bets and moneyline parlays. And they all looked smart as Emari Demercado was running for a long touchdown that would have put the Cardinals ahead 27-6 with the extra point pending in the fourth quarter.
If you were in that 23.88% you already know what happened. Demercado let go of the ball just before he scored, giving it to the Titans. The Cardinals had an interception that probably would have ended the game, but they fumbled it, the ball bounced into the end zone after a few players tried to grab it and the Titans recovered for a touchdown. There was also a fumble on a shotgun snap that went off Kyler Murray’s facemask. Tennessee’s offense, which had 120 net yards in the first three quarters, had drives of 80, 61 and 71 yards in the fourth quarter.
Tennessee’s win probability was as low as 1.8%, according to Next Gen Stats. Which means Arizona blew a game they had a 98.2% chance of winning.
Jason Lisk at PoolGenius ranked the worst survival pool bad beats, and he had the Cardinals’ loss on Sunday at No. 1. It’s hard to argue. If you’re still alive for Week 6 because you didn’t pick the Cardinals (or Rams, or Bills), then you’re already playing with house money.
Even with some big favorites losing outright in Week 5, there are a lot of big spreads for this week’s game.
There are 10 spreads of four points or more, including the Packers as -14.5 favorites over the Bengals. Four of the spreads are over a touchdown.
That’s an indication that this week doesn’t have the greatest slate of games. That begins on Thursday night with the Eagles being a 7.5-point road favorite at the Giants. There are plenty of teaser and survivor possibilities on the slate though. Just don’t make the mistake of thinking any of them are safe plays.
Last week, the Colts were 3.5-point favorites in the lookahead lines for this week’s game against the Cardinals. That moved to Colts -6.5 after the Colts trashed the Raiders 40-6 and the Cardinals lost to the Titans. The line move might say a little bit about the Cardinals too, and maybe a bit about uncertainty surrounding Kyler Murray’s foot injury, but the Colts are 4-1 and looking legitimate. The Colts are still just 22-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, curiously behind the Ravens at 20-to-1, but that will change if they continue to play well.
After the Lions got blown out in Week 1, the thought of them being the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl a month later seemed weird. But after the Eagles’ loss in Week 5 to the Broncos, the Lions took over the top spot in the NFC odds.
The Lions are are +375 to win the NFC, with the Eagles right behind at +400. The Lions also only trail the Bills in the Super Bowl odds. Detroit is +700 to win it all with Buffalo at +450. After four strong wins following the Week 1 loss to the Packers, the Lions look a lot like the team that went 15-2 last regular season. Oddsmakers agree.
The Chiefs have had a hard schedule and a slow start. That has meant a surprising amount of times for them being a home underdog.
For the third time this season the Chiefs are underdogs at home. They lost to the Eagles as a home dog, beat the Ravens, and now they’re a 1-point underdog to the Lions at home this Sunday.
Before this season, Patrick Mahomes was a home underdog only once in his career. That came against the Bills in 2022. That number has gone from one to four (assuming the Lions-Chiefs line doesn’t flip to Kansas City being favored by kickoff) through just six games this season. The Chiefs are an uncharacteristic 2-3 to start the season after losing a thriller at the Jaguars on Monday night. The Chiefs are not favored to win the AFC West. They’re +185, behind the Chargers (+175) and tied with the Broncos (+185). It’s a strange season so far for Kansas City.