Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats, unless otherwise noted.
Buffalo Bills RB James Cook rushed for 16 touchdowns last season, but seven running backs scored more fantasy points because they either accumulated many more rushing yards or played a large role in their team’s offense catching passes. Cook did neither. He barely slid past 1,000 rushing yards and he caught only 32 passes. With Cook’s TD rate expected to fall, he was only the No. 10 RB in ESPN ADP, a bit of an overlooked third-round selection.
Cook enters Week 5 second to San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey in fantasy points, and these players achieve their fantasy output in vastly different ways. McCaffrey’s massive receiving numbers alone would qualify him to be a WR1. Cook averages three receptions per game. But he is earning far greater volume than he has in past seasons, and (small sample) is scoring touchdowns at a higher rate than last season. He and QB Josh Allen coexist quite nicely.
I selected Cook in the first round of this week’s ESPN Fantasy staff “October Mock” because this all looks legitimate. Cook is averaging 22.8 points and is on pace for 319 carries, 1,704 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns, along with a career-high 51 receptions. OK, so perhaps take the “under” on these lofty numbers, but this looks like a solid, durable (sorry, McCaffrey managers) NFL player becoming a superstar in Year 4. I am all-in.
Other RB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
Daniels will play Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers after sitting out two games because of a left knee sprain. Since fantasy football managers must dissect everything, some wonder if Daniels will return to his old self as a runner. Daniels averaged 42.5 rushing yards in the Washington Commanders’ first two games, a bit down from his extraordinary performance as a rookie. Don’t read into that. Even without several key players (Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler), start Daniels with confidence.
Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
Take nothing away from the stunning performance of WR Quentin Johnston, who finally looks legit in his third NFL season, or the steady performance of wily veteran Keenan Allen. I don’t see either of them continuing to produce at this rate, though they remain solid plays for Sunday against the Commanders. QB Justin Herbert can probably throw wherever he wants against that defense. Still, McConkey is averaging a poor 8.4 points (Johnston is at 19.9 PPG!) and is starting to be dumped in ESPN leagues. That should not happen.
Last season, you might remember, McConkey wasn’t exactly a star in September. In fact, he entered Week 7 averaging four receptions and 44 receiving yards. He scored two touchdowns, but fantasy managers weren’t relying on him. Starting in Week 7, he averaged nearly six receptions and 85 receiving yards. He scored five touchdowns, and Johnston was inconsistent and hardly a volume option to begin with.
I am leaving McConkey in lineups this week. Johnston is talented, but if trading for a Chargers WR and including rough cost analysis, I would prefer acquiring McConkey (if he is treated as a WR4/waiver bait) over Johnston (if people assume his WR1 performance lasts for four months).
Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn’t surprise: