Your decision to draft Leon Draisaitl over Auston Matthews isn’t going to win you your league.
Neither will choosing Zach Werenski over Rasmus Dahlin. Or Sergei Bobrovsky over Igor Shesterkin.
Fantasy hockey leagues are won in the margins. Everyone gets quality players early. The difference between finishing middle of the pack and taking home the trophy is how you use those late-round picks (and then how you manage waivers and trades along the way, don’t worry, we’ll be here for that, too).
ESPN Fantasy Hockey tracks average draft position (ADP) out to a 10-team league, which means 230 players. That means about 230 is the max you’ll see on ADP in your draft window or when looking at the player data in your league. If a player has an ADP lower than 200, they are being selected in the majority of drafts. If they are in the 200 to 210 range, it’s a coin flip that they’ll be drafted. In the 210 to 220 range, we are talking closer to one in four. And if they are past 220 ADP, odds are they aren’t being picked at all.
So who deserves a shot in that 200-plus range? Who should you actually use those last handful of picks on when you’re filling out your bench in rounds 19 through 23?
This is where context beats star power. Upside is hidden in the details — a second-unit power-play assignment, a depth chart shuffle, being next in line if a star gets hurt, or landing on a team that’s simply better this season. Beyond raw talent, the late rounds are about who has a real pathway to meaningful minutes and production.
These are the players who can turn the margins into your edge. You’ll have your own, for your own reasons. Here are 12 names outside pick 200 that I’m targeting, and the hooks that make them worth the gamble.
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Quinton Byfield, C, Los Angeles Kings (214.7 ADP): Anze Kopitar’s retirement tour looms over this season, and Byfield is the heir apparent. He’s shown enough that the takeover could begin in earnest this season. Don’t be surprised if he ends up chasing for the Kings lead in fantasy points among forwards.
Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken (228.3 ADP): While we’ve had four seasons of Beniers for evaluation and the end result is more “meh” than “wow,” he is still only 22 years old. But it’s definitely go time. He should be angling to be deployed as a true, No. 1 center with 20 minutes per game, surrounded by snipers on the wings. This is the season where Beniers will break through or show us he’s destined as a No. 2.
Cole Perfetti, LW, Winnipeg Jets (224.6 ADP): With Nikolaj Ehlers gone, someone has to soak up those top-six minutes and power-play touches. Perfetti got plenty of it last season, but will move one more rung up the depth chart ladder now. Consistent power-play time should mean a 60-point floor.
Jeff Skinner, LW, San Jose Sharks (229.9 ADP): Skinner’s not the same as he was in his prime, but he doesn’t need to be. The Sharks are climbing out of their rebuild doldrums, and Skinner’s signing signals they want some veteran offense now. He should play bigger minutes here than he did in Edmonton and he’s never been shy about putting pucks on net.
Valeri Nichushkin, RW, Colorado Avalanche (208.8 ADP): In the post-Mikko Rantanen era, the Avs will need Nichushkin more than ever to flank Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. When everything clicks, he’s a fantasy standout you can get after pick 200.
Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, St. Louis Blues (229.6 ADP): The Blues just give me good vibes this season. There’s always that team that just feels like they have all the ducks in a row to break out of the mushy middle with a surprise campaign. For me, that’s this St. Louis team that ran the table with coach Jim Montgomery at the end of last season. Snuggerud got a handful of games in, looked NHL ready and will surely be in the mix for a top-six role.
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Jamie Drysdale, D, Philadelphia Flyers (229.3 ADP): There’s a clear path for Drysdale to quarterback the Flyers’ top power-play unit, which is half the battle for fantasy relevance. Health is always a question, but the talent and opportunity line up perfectly here.
Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues (228.6 ADP): Another defender with a straight shot at PP1 duties and part of a Blues squad that feels primed for a big season. If he fully takes over quarterback duties from Justin Faulk, Fowler could flirt with a career-high 40 assists.
Alexander Romanov, D, New York Islanders (219.3 ADP): Romanov won’t wow with scoring, but he’s a multi-category plug-in who racks up hits and blocks while staying durable. Despite only 20 points, his 2.1 fantasy points per game ranked 17th among defensemen last season, tied with Adam Fox, Josh Morrissey, Seth Jones, and Evan Bouchard — proof that counting stats matter.
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John Gibson, G, Detroit Red Wings (220.5 ADP): Finally out of Anaheim, Gibson has a chance to stabilize behind a team with playoff aspirations. Even league-average goaltending from him in Detroit makes him a sleeper bench goalie with upside.
Karel Vejmelka, G, Utah Mammoth (221.4 ADP): The Mammoth are on the upswing, and there’s no other ‘tender in line to challenge Vejmelka for the crease. Volume is half the game in fantasy netminding, and he’s poised to get it.
Jeremy Swayman, G, Boston Bruins (203.8 ADP): Swayman handled the full-time starter role last season, and while the Bruins struggled, he showed he can carry a heavy workload. Admittedly, the Bruins stabilizing is a tall “if,” but he has all the puzzle pieces to outperform his late-round ADP and give you solid, starter-level numbers.
Late-round picks don’t always hit. That’s the nature of taking swings after pick 200. But what matters is targeting players who actually have a reason to pop, whether it’s power-play time, a new team or just being next in line for more opportunity. These aren’t lottery tickets you stash and forget; they’re calculated bets with clear upside.
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