Welcome to The Playbook for Week 5, which kicks off Thursday with the 49ers at the Rams.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
SF-LAR | MIN-CLE | HOU-BAL | MIA-CAR | LV-IND | NYG-NO | DAL-NYJ
DEN-PHI | TEN-ARI | TB-SEA | DET-CIN | WAS-LAC | NE-BUF | KC-JAX
Projected score: Rams 24, 49ers 18
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
Fantasy scoop: Matthew Stafford is fresh off a 375-yard, three-TD, 27.4-fantasy point effort in Week 4, but he’s still not a reliable starting option in fantasy. Stafford, who also threw two TDs in Weeks 2 and 3, sits top 5 among quarterbacks in completions, passing yards and passing TDs. And yet he’s only 12th in fantasy points. Why? Stafford contributes so little with his legs that running the ball has actually lost him points this season (-4 yards on 10 carries). Stafford hasn’t cleared 112 rushing yards in a season since 2016 and has one rushing TD during the span. At age 37, that’s not going to change any time soon.
Similar to Jared Goff, Stafford will occasionally be worth streaming consideration (especially during bye weeks), but that’s not the case this week against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards and fantasy points to QBs. Stafford is no more than a low-ceiling QB2.
Over/under: 42.4 (10th highest)
Win probability: Rams 65% (7th highest)
Projected score: Vikings 19, Browns 15
Lineup locks: Quinshon Judkins, Jordan Mason, Justin Jefferson
Fantasy scoop: Jordan Addison returned from suspension and played 96% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps in Week 4. The 2023 first-round pick was targeted nine times and turned it into four catches for 114 yards. Addison has now seen at least eight targets in eight of his past 10 games tracing back to last season, averaging 16.3 fantasy PPG during the span.
Of course, a majority of that damage was done with Sam Darnold under center, and moving forward, Addison will work with Carson Wentz and eventually J.J. McCarthy. Suspect QB play figures to lead to inconsistent output, but considering Wentz threw for 350 yards on Sunday and has thrown two TD passes in both of his 2025 appearances, there’s enough here to keep Addison in the WR3 discussion against Cleveland.
Shadow Report: We’re downgrading Cleveland’s wide receivers against a terrific Minnesota pass defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, including to the perimeter, as well as the lowest EPA allowed to the pass overall. Jerry Jeudy is off to a slow start (13-182-0 receiving line on 30 targets and no games with more than 11.6 fantasy points), so he should be glued to your bench.
Over/under: 34 (Lowest)
Win probability: Vikings 67% (6th highest)
Projected score: Colts 27, Raiders 19
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Pittman Jr., Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren
Fantasy scoop: Not 100% healthy at times early this season, Bowers is off to a slow start. The second-year tight end produced 103 yards on eight targets in Week 1, but left that game early and has fallen short of 50 yards and 10.0 fantasy points in three-straight outings. The good news is that Bowers doesn’t appear limited (his route participation matches his 2024 usage) and in Week 4, though his six targets may seem weak, he actually saw a season-high 30% target share (Geno Smith attempted only 21 passes). Better days are likely ahead for Bowers, and that very well could start this week against a Colts defense that has allowed eight passing TDs (fifth most).
Shadow Report: Upgrade the Colts wide receivers against a Raiders pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position (sixth most to the perimeter) as well as the eighth-highest EPA against the pass. Pittman is the only Colts receiver you can trust right now and should be locked into lineups in this terrific matchup against Eric Stokes, Kyu Blu Kelly and Darnay Holmes.
Over/under: 46.3 (6th highest)
Win probability: Colts 76% (3rd highest)
Projected score: Giants 23, Saints 19
Lineup locks: Cam Skattebo, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave
Fantasy scoop: Jaxson Dart made his first NFL start on Sunday, and the results suggest we may have a potential fantasy asset on our hands. With New York ahead or tied on all 67 offensive snaps, Dart needed to attempt only 20 passes (he completed 13 for 111 yards and one TD), but he showed his dual-threat ability with a 10-54-1 rushing line. The latter was enough to give him a top-10 fantasy outing.
Dart will surely need to throw the ball more often moving forward, and that figures to be the case this week against a New Orleans defense that sits top five in passing TDs (nine) and fantasy points allowed to QBs. All four QBs that have faced New Orleans have produced 16-plus fantasy points. Rookie bumps will pop up, but even without Malik Nabers, Dart has the skill set to hang on the fantasy radar. He’s worth scooping up on waivers and is a streaming option in Week 5.
Shadow Report: The Giants may be down Nabers for the rest of the season, but the team’s new-look WR room is positioned with a very good Week 5 matchup. The Saints have allowed the fourth-highest EPA against the pass, as well as the fourth-most fantasy points to the perimeter. They sit midpack in overall fantasy points allowed to receivers, but only because they’ve faced so little volume (fifth-fewest WR targets). Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton can be upgraded against Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alontae Taylor and rookie Quincy Riley (who replaced Isaac Yiadom during Week 4’s loss).
Over/under: 41.7 (11th highest)
Win probability: Giants 63% (8th highest)
Projected score: Cowboys 26, Jets 25
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: Yes, Fields is a lineup lock this week. The Dallas defense simply cannot stop the pass, having allowed at least 24 fantasy points to the opposing QB in all four games. The Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards (1,237), most passing TDs (10) and the highest YPA (9.2), not to mention a 26-122-2 rushing line to quarterbacks. Fields has played two full games, and both were strong fantasy efforts: 29.5 points against Pittsburgh in Week 1 and 27.1 points against Miami on Monday night. He posted massive rushing lines of 12-48-2 and 7-81-1, respectively, in the two games, while also throwing for 200-plus yards and one TD in both. Field’s dual-threat ability combined with the elite matchup sets him up for a strong Week 5 showing.
Shadow Report: Sauce Gardner is a strong bet to shadow Pickens this week. New York’s top corner has traveled with clearly-established No. 1 perimeter receivers, including DK Metcalf in Week 1 and Mike Evans in Week 2. Gardner did a respectable job in both games (Metcalf scored 12.3 fantasy points and Evans had 13.3), but he hasn’t been as elite as usual and the Jets are allowing the third-highest EPA against the pass. Pickens is fresh off an 8-134-2 showing on 11 targets against the Packers and has 17-plus fantasy points in three-straight games. With CeeDee Lamb sidelined, he remains Dak Prescott’s top target and, even in a tough matchup, is a viable WR1 fantasy option.
Shadow Report: No shocker here, but we’re upgrading Wilson and the Jets receivers in a big way against the aforementioned horrific Dallas pass defense. The Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers overall, as well as to both the left and right perimeters. They have the worst defensive EPA both overall and against the pass and have allowed the most yards (827) and TDs (nine) to receivers. In four games, three receivers have hit 28 fantasy points against Dallas. Wilson is the only Jets receiver we can trust, but he’s in a terrific spot this week.
Over/under: 50.8 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 51% (13th highest)
Projected score: Eagles 23, Broncos 21
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Courtland Sutton
Shadow Report: Expect Quinyon Mitchell to shadow Sutton this week. Philadelphia’s top corner has already traveled with George Pickens, Davante Adams and Emeka Egbuka full time on the perimeter and also shadowed Hollywood Brown early on in Week 2. Pickens (3.5 fantasy points) and Adams (14.6) were mostly held in check and Egbuka (20.1) struggled until hitting for a long touchdown in Week 4. Mitchell is one of the league’s best young corners, and the Eagles have been good against the pass (sixth-lowest EPA and the second-lowest catch rate allowed), though they have faced the fourth-most WR targets. Sutton should be downgraded but will see enough volume to hang in the WR2/3 mix.
Shadow Report: Pat Surtain II is a strong bet to shadow Brown this week. Perhaps the league’s best corner, Surtain has already traveled with Calvin Ridley, Michael Pittman Jr., Quentin Johnston and Ja’Marr Chase this season. The four receivers averaged 9.2 fantasy points, and only Johnston (14.3) cleared 8.0. Brown remains heavily targeted (30% share and nine-plus targets in three straight games) but is off to a slow start, with only one double-digit fantasy point performance. Brown is too good to bench, but this matchup knocks him down to WR2 territory.
Over/under: 44.2 (7th highest)
Win probability: Eagles 59% (11th highest)
Projected score: Panthers 25, Dolphins 22
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle
Fantasy scoop: Tyreek Hill (knee) is out for the season, which cements Waddle as a lineup lock. The fifth-year receiver has seen either five or six targets in all four games this season and is averaging just 46.3 yards per game, but he does have a pair of touchdowns and a history of strong fantasy production (he finished top 25 in fantasy PPG in each of his first three NFL seasons). Waddle saw a season-high 24% target share on Monday night, which aligns much closer with where he was earlier in his career and is in the vicinity of what we should expect moving forward. Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will operate as the Nos. 2 and 3 receivers and can be considered sleepers for deep-league flex output.
Shadow Report: Speaking of Miami’s wide receivers, they’ll have their hands full this week. Carolina has been terrific against the position, having allowed the second-fewest fantasy points (fourth fewest to the perimeter) as well as the fewest yards (396) and lowest catch rate (52%). Stefon Diggs (16.1) is the only receiver who has reached 11 points against the Panthers in a game this season. Expectations for Waddle and company should be lowered against Carolina’s solid Jaycee Horn/Mike Jackson duo.
Over/under: 46.8 (5th highest)
Win probability: Panthers 60% (10th highest)
Projected score: Texans 23, Ravens 21
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Nico Collins, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: Woody Marks appears to be the new lead back in Houston. The fourth-round rookie’s snap share has increased each week and peaked at 58% in Week 4 against Tennessee. Marks posted a strong 17-69-1 rushing line and added 4-50-1 on five targets. Marks’ rushing volume benefited from the one-sided win, but he was utilized throughout the game (not just in garbage time), and his standout ability as a receiver will keep him involved in the passing game.
With Joe Mixon seemingly nowhere close to a return and Nick Chubb (15 touches last week) fading a bit, Marks has found his way into the weekly RB2/flex mix. He has a terrific Week 5 matchup against an injury-plagued Ravens defense that has allowed the most TDs (seven) and fantasy points to running backs.
Fantasy scoop: With Lamar Jackson sidelined, Cooper Rush will be under center for Baltimore. It’s an obvious downgrade for the Baltimore offense, especially the passing game, though it’s worth noting that Rush was somewhat competent in place of Dak Prescott in Dallas last season. During seven full games, Rush threw 11 TD passes and four INTs, averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and completed 62% of his passes. That’s not especially good, but it could’ve been much worse than 233 passing yards per game and at least one passing TD in all seven outings.
Rush, who adds almost zero with his legs, played just well enough to help CeeDee Lamb amass 17.8 fantasy PPG, which ranked 14th among receivers. Baltimore’s Rush-led passing game will have its hands full against a good Houston pass defense, and the Ravens could turn to a run-heavy approach with Henry (Houston has allowed the seventh-highest EPA to the run but the third-lowest to the pass). Henry and Flowers will see enough work to warrant a spot in your lineup, but everyone else is best avoided.
Over/Under: 43.6 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 56% (12th highest)
Projected score: Cardinals 25, Titans 15
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: With James Conner and Trey Benson on IR, the Cardinals will turn to Emari Demercado and Michael Carter in the backfield. Demercado out-snapped Carter 26-4 last week (Benson played 34 snaps), so while he’s the favorite for 1A duties, it’s very possible this is a near-even split. Demercado has cleared four carries in a game only three times in his career (all in 2023), whereas Carter — once a lead back for the Jets — has 327 carries and 151 targets to his name in his career.
Arizona RBs weren’t very productive last week, but the matchup was very tough (Seattle is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry to RBs) and life will be easier in Week 5 against a Titans defense that has allowed 5.0 YPC, the most TDs (seven) and fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. This is a backfield best avoided, but if you’re in a tough spot, Demercado is the preferred flex.
Shadow Report: Expect L’Jarius Sneed to shadow Marvin Harrison Jr. this week. Sneed has already traveled with Courtland Sutton, Davante Adams and Nico Collins. Sutton had a strong Week 1, though he didn’t record a catch against a limited Sneed, and whereas Adams posted a strong 22.6 points in Week 2, Collins was held to 11.9 in Week 4. Though he’s trending up, Sneed isn’t quite yet his elite 2023 self and Tennessee has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers. Harrison’s bust risk is higher than usual, but he remains a WR3 option after his strong Week 4 fantasy showing.
Over/under: 40.6 (13th highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 83% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 21
Lineup locks: Rachaad White, Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr.
Fantasy scoop: It took only one week for Godwin to re-enter “lineup lock” status. Godwin’s season debut saw him produce only 26 yards on three catches, but, more importantly, he played 55 snaps (81%) and registered 10 targets. Godwin hit double-digit targets only once last season and was still the No. 2-scoring wide receiver in fantasy when healthy. Target distribution could get tricky in Tampa Bay once Mike Evans returns, but in the meantime, Egbuka and Godwin are Baker Mayfield’s clear top targets and should be in lineups. That includes Week 5 despite a tough matchup against a Seattle defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards (412) and third-fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Fantasy scoop: With Bucky Irving sidelined, Rachaad White is expected to slide in as Tampa Bay’s lead back. It’s a role White held in 2023 when he soaked up 299 carries and 69 catches while scoring 10 TDs. White, who found the end zone nine times in a lesser role last season, is an excellent pass catcher and, even if he shares carries with Sean Tucker, he has a path to RB2 production this week. That’s the case even against a solid Seattle run defense that has allowed 3.3 yards per carry (fourth lowest) and zero rushing TDs, but also the most catches and receiving yards to RBs.
Over/under: 43.5 (9th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 56% (12th highest)
Projected score: Lions 32, Bengals 19
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: Chase Brown’s slow start to the season continued on Monday night (10.1 fantasy points), but there is reason for optimism that he can remain in the RB2 mix moving forward. Brown played 74% of the snaps in the game and has now cleared 70% in three of four games. He also posted season-high marks in yards per carry (4.0) and scrimmage yards (71). Additionally, Cincinnati’s fantasy schedule is about to go from one of the hardest (Cleveland, Jacksonville, Minnesota and Denver so far) to one of the easiest moving forward.
Sure, Joe Burrow won’t be back any time soon, but Brown’s combination of heavy usage and a more-appealing schedule will help keep him fantasy relevant. He’s a fine RB2/flex play against a Lions defense that has allowed one TD to the opposing lead back in all four games.
Over/under: 50.9 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Lions 92% (Highest)
Projected score: Chargers 28, Commanders 22
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels, Omarion Hampton, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, Deebo Samuel, Ladd McConkey, Terry McLaurin
Fantasy scoop: McConkey’s slump continued on Sunday as the second-year receiver posted career-low marks in receptions (one), yardage (11) and fantasy points (2.1). McConkey’s playing time was the same as usual (93% snap share), but Herbert simply chose to continue his heavy reliance on Johnston (13 targets) and Allen (seven). McConkey has now seen his target share, yardage and fantasy point total dip each week of the season and he sits 51st among receivers in fantasy points. Despite the recent struggle, the Chargers’ pass-heavy, WR-friendly scheme is enough to keep highly talented McConkey in the WR3 mix. He should remain in lineups against a Washington defense that has allowed the fifth-highest EPA against the pass.
Over/under: 49.8 (4th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 71% (5th highest)
Projected score: Bills 30, Patriots 23
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry
Fantasy scoop: Diggs has earned his way back to “lineup lock” status. The 11-year vet was limited to open the season, while getting back to full health from last season’s torn ACL. During Weeks 1-3, he played 54% of the snaps, handled 14% of the targets and posted a 13-112-0 receiving line on 15 targets. In Week 4, Diggs played 63% of the snaps, handled 41% of the targets and delivered a 6-101-0 line on seven targets. Diggs sits 37th among receivers in fantasy points despite ranking 72nd in routes and having seen minimal goal-line work (including zero end zone targets). Drake Maye is in the midst of a breakout season, and Diggs is quickly emerging as his No. 1 target. Diggs should be in lineups in a big divisional game against Buffalo this week.
Over/under: 52.4 (Highest)
Win probability: Bills 74% (4th highest)
Projected score: Chiefs 21, Jaguars 21
Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: Back from a shoulder injury that cost him the first three games of the season, Worthy certainly made his presence felt in Week 4. The second-year receiver soaked up a pair of carries and eight targets while leading the Chiefs in both rushing (38) and receiving (83) yards. Worthy accomplished the feat despite playing only 59% of the offensive snaps. Tracing back to last season, Worthy is averaging 8.3 touches, 93.7 yards and 20.9 fantasy points per game in his last seven full outings. At least until Rashee Rice returns in Week 7, Worthy will remain Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 target and should be locked into lineups.
Over/under: 41.4 (12th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 51% (Lowest)