This is not how the Detroit Tigers drew it up at the beginning of the season. After leading the American League Central for the better part of the past five months, the Tigers playoff hopes and the outcome of the division come down to one weekend in Boston.
The Tigers pressure-packed series against the Red Sox, which begins Friday, arrives after a mostly disastrous three-game series in Cleveland, in which the Guardians took two of three from Detroit, capturing the all-important tiebreaker in the process. The Tigers were able to escape Cleveland with a win in the series finale, once again tying things up atop the division.
Overall, September has been a catastrophic month for Detroit as theyve tried to stave off a historic collapse. At the beginning of this month, the AL Central was the division in which it was clearest who the winner would be.
Or we thought.
Detroit led Cleveland in the Central by a whopping 15.5 games on July 8. The Tigers led the division by 12.5 games on Aug. 25. But with their loss to Cleveland on Wednesday, Detroit trailed in the division for the first time in months.
At the same time, Cleveland has gone on an amazing run since the trade deadline, with a hot streak that has been both incredible and methodical. Since Aug. 25, the Guardians have gone 22-8, while Detroit is 8-19 in that span. That has put Cleveland on the verge of setting the record for the largest deficit ever overcome to win a division in MLB history.
Beyond the tally of wins and losses, where has Detroits season gone so very wrong?
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To start, over the past month, Detroit’s offense has been almost nonexistent. The Tigers are 26th in baseball in runs scored across their 8-19 stretch, and the teams most reliable bats, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene, have gone ice-cold.
Meanwhile, the starting pitching which, beyond Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal, has been a question for the Tigers all season has struggled along with the offense. You know what youre going to get every five days from Skubal, but behind him, things havent been going well for a while. Detroits team ERA ranks 16th in baseball entering Friday, and thats with Skubals 2.21 significantly lowering the collective average.
At this point, Detroits moves or lack thereof at the trade deadline have come back to haunt them. In July, the Tigers acquired 41-year-old Charlie Morton, who has been one of the worst starters in baseball in the second half, leading to his release. They also added right-hander Chris Paddack from the Minnesota Twins, and he was moved to the bullpen after just six starts. Meanwhile, after an All-Star first half, Casey Mize has regressed, with a 5.17 second-half ERA.
So with three games left to play, what can happen this weekend?
The Tigers go into Friday tied with the Guardians in the AL Central, but because Cleveland holds the tiebreaker, the Tigers are essentially one game back. That means Detroit needs to win more games this weekend than Cleveland in order to win the AL Central. If the Tigers have the same result as the Guardians, who host the Rangers this weekend, Cleveland will be the division winner.
The other scenario for the Tigers involves the Houston Astros, the only team who could still sneak into the postseason. Entering Friday, the Astros are one game back for the final wild-card spot, so its a real possibility that Houston could knock Detroit out entirely. If Cleveland takes care of business against Texas, the Astros win their series against the lowly Angels and the Tigers lose two of three to the Red Sox, Cleveland will win the Central, the Astros will take the final wild-card spot, and the Tigers will be watching October baseball at home.
Long story short, the Tigers are in must-win mode over their final three games, staring down the possibility of missing the postseason entirely and making the worst kind of MLB history. Given the way things are lining up, it seems likely theyll have Skubal on the mound in the regular-season finale with the stakes about as high as they could possibly be.
Buckle up, Detroit. It could be a long weekend.