Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats, unless otherwise noted.
It is clearly big news for the NFL world that the New York Giants have decided to promote rookie Jaxson Dart into the starting QB role, sending veteran QB Russell Wilson to the bench. The move should have repercussions for the fantasy football world as well, not so much that managers in standard formats will trust Dart, but that second-year WR Malik Nabers should see more and better targets downfield. Dart may or may not turn the New York offense into a juggernaut, but at least everyone will be watching.
Yep, all eyes are on Dart, but Skattebo is poised to make a greater impact for fantasy purposes. There are 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. In a typical fantasy league, perhaps two thirds of them may be on rosters. Things are different at running back. Fantasy managers are desperate for relevant options, especially as bye weeks approach. Next week, for example, Atlanta Falcons star Bijan Robinson and Green Bay Packers star Josh Jacobs will not play. Many/most fantasy managers who have Skattebo will have him active in their lineups.
I think many Skattebo investors should have him active this week. We can debate the competency of New York’s offensive line and, perhaps, the team’s playcalling, but it may not matter with Skattebo, the Arizona State product secured in the fourth round. He is an explosive, powerful runner who invites contact and punishes defenders. Sure, all running backs need space to run, but Skattebo is built different. Expect at least 60 rushing yards each week and some receptions. He caught six of eight targets in Week 3. If Dart throws his way, this is a potential RB1 option.
It didn’t take long for Skattebo to outshine last year’s starter Tyrone Tracy Jr. (shoulder), now out for the next few weeks. Tracy, who rushed for 839 yards as a rookie but didn’t seem fit for the long-term role (he played WR in college), is averaging 3.1 yards per rush this season. OK, so the offensive line is bad. Skattebo averages 4.4 yards per rush, so it wasn’t that bad. Devin Singletary is a competent backup, but not special in any way. Skattebo runs over and through defenders. He is an RB2 option this week, and moving forward, potentially more, regardless of opponent.
Other RB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
The theory goes that Mayfield, averaging a mere 205 passing yards per game so far (last season he averaged 265 yards), may struggle against the similarly unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles because WR Mike Evans (hamstring) is out and Chris Godwin Jr., assuming he plays, won’t be on the field for close to every snap. Rookie Emeka Egbuka is great, former Giant Sterling Shepard is serviceable, but Mayfield (biceps), who has been limited in practice this week, will be compromised and under heavy pressure from the Philly defensive front.
I think we should be well past the point of doubting Mayfield, a top-10 fantasy QB in each of his two Buccaneers seasons. He faced the Eagles twice in that span (once in the playoffs), and he passed for 684 yards and five touchdowns, adding another rushing score, with nary a turnover. The Buccaneers seem to have Philadelphia’s number, especially at home. The Eagles have one good cornerback. It’s going to be hot. It may not matter who plays at wide receiver, I see points being scored. It’s up to Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley to score more, but both QBs are worth it.
Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
Kraft enters the Week 4 road game against a sputtering Dallas Cowboys defense — if only they still rostered a significant pass rusher — leading the team in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches. This isn’t a revelation, as he led the Packers in TD receptions last season, and he finished just behind Jayden Reed in receptions. Kraft finished 10th in TE scoring last season, and some expected even more production this season. Despite a quiet outing against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 — few Packers thrived, and Kraft was dealing with a sore knee — Kraft looks like the safest bet in Green Bay’s passing offense.
We aim to be positive when declaring surprising predictions, but one could easily evaluate Kraft’s potential emergence as QB Jordan Love’s top option as an indictment of the young wide receivers the franchise has accumulated in recent drafts. In fact, the two are connected. Kraft, a third-round selection in 2023, is doing the best work, especially after the catch, where he really shines. Love is not the high-volume thrower he was in 2023, and this is by team design, but when he throws, Kraft boasts a 19% target share.
It is quite noteworthy that former Packer (and future Hall of Famer) Davante Adams is the most recent player in Green Bay to surpass the rather low total of 900 receiving yards in a season, doing so with the help of QB Aaron Rodgers in 2021. The last player other than Adams to get there was Jordy Nelson in 2016. Perhaps no Packers will reach 900 receiving yards this season, including Kraft. Love isn’t throwing much. Reed (collarbone) may not play again until November. Rookie Matthew Golden isn’t seeing many targets. Ordinary Dontayvion Wicks isn’t gaining many yards.
Perhaps the young, enticing Packers wide receivers embarrass the terrible Cowboys secondary Sunday night, but I may still view it as an aberrant performance, not something likely to stick for three more months. The Packers want Love to play it safe and avoid turnovers, not throw the football downfield and risk a change in possession. Kraft tends to be the open receiver in the intermediate passing game. I don’t see Love approaching QB1 status and no Packers WR looks like more than a WR4. Kraft, however, is a safe TE1.
Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn’t surprise: