Two weeks into the 2025-26 college football season, the noise is starting to separate from the signal. Top-tier programs are flexing, mid-majors are catching fire and early surprises are already reshaping how bettors view the board. Heading into Week 3, storylines range from SEC letdowns to Big 12 contenders showing cracks. The mission remains simple: read the market, spot value, and lock in positions before lines move.
Here are a couple of Week 3 college football bets I like, along with a recap of the Week 2 wagers I made and where I went right and wrong.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Week 3 early bets to make
Texas Tech dismantled Kent State 62-13, but the market seems inflated as a result. Im high on Behren Morton (took a Heisman flyer on him at 250-1 in our preseason article), but laying 24 feels rich. They are still a relatively unproven team with a ton of transfer talent and though Im a fan, wins against Arkansas Pine Bluff and Kent State arent getting me to the gate at this number.
Oregon States defense has been shaky, giving up 35 PPG to Cal and Fresno State, so the risk of another Red Raiders offensive explosion is real. But Texas Tech showed a tendency to hit cruise control after big leads, prioritizing health over margin, and that opens the door for a backdoor cover. With a large spread, constant pursuit offense wont get it done, but Oregon State looks to throw the ball a ton which opens the potential for explosive plays and points on the board even though they are severely outmatched in talent. I made this number -20.8, so opening value on the ‘dog here.
Bet: Oregon State +24.5 (-110)
USF has been an early-season darling, winning outright last week as an 18.5-point ‘dog vs. Florida. But this week, Im prepping to start the sell off as sharps didnt pile on in the last matchup similar to how they did for the Week 1 Boise State line in fact, the line drifted higher pre game, suggesting enthusiasm may be cooling. Miami laying just -16.5 feels short (my number is -19).
Off a bye after beating Notre Dame, the Canes have had the luxury of focusing on film from USF-Florida last weekend (they play both teams in the next two weeks). With prep time and talent edges, I like the home favorite whose skill positions have looked great and get all the recognition, but its the offensive line Ive been most impressed with to start the season.
Bet: Miami (FL) -16.5 (-105)
Kansas States overseas stumble in Dublin vs. Iowa State was ugly, but not season-defining. Armys complex run game is a brutal Week 2 prep and though a loss is not acceptable, I dont look as harshly on it as it seems the betting market has.
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Arizona, meanwhile, is getting too much credit for scoring 40 points in its opener. Dig deeper: It was just 344 total yards against a banged-up Hawaii QB and a tired defense. Neither offense inspires confidence, causing this total to look inflated. Kansas State has had a tough time after its Ireland trip, but the talent on the defensive front has been talked about all offseason and with their backs to the wall, it’s time to show up. While Kansas State QB Avery Johnson historically has been an explosive playmaker, through two weeks this offense has found itself making small steps rather than highlight-reel plays.
Bet: Under 54.5 (-110)
North Carolina vs. Charlotte: Perfect middle with Charlotte +21.5 and UNC -13.5 as Carolina won 20-3. Took a hit on the over, but the real win was catching the overreaction in real time.
Auburn vs. Ball State: A 42-3 snoozer where the under 55.5 was never in doubt.
South Florida vs. Florida: USF cashed outright, making +17.5 look golden. The early article goes 3-0, but the Bulls’ upset win might actually create future fade value.
Sam Houston State vs. Hawaii: Lost with Sam Houston +7, but the read on Hawaiis QB absence was right. Wrong side, right process.
Wisconsin vs. Middle Tennessee: MTSU hung around early, burning the -16.5 1H ticket, but Wisconsin covered the full game spread with a second-half surge. A reminder this team may not start fast.
Pittsburgh vs. Central Michigan: Holy pace is right Pitt dropped 45, and the over 50.5 cashed with ease despite three quarters of competitive play.
Oklahoma vs. Michigan: Michigan +5.5 looked good until reality set in: This program refuses to throw the ball, and until that changes,QB talent wont matter.
Overall: A 5-3 week (early article 3-0). The takeaway? Markets tighten with more info, so betting early with conviction is where the edge lives.