Its been almost six months since we watched Super Bowl LIX between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, but now that NFL preseason is back, a familiar question surfaces: Is it actually worth betting on?
For many public bettors, preseason betting feels like throwing darts. Starters barely play, motivation is inconsistent and the games dont count. Youll hear from various outlets that only degenerates wager on the NFL preseason.
But heres the truth: The preseason may be the best time to bet the NFL all season if you know where to look.
Why? Because sportsbooks cant fully price in variables like insider info, coaching intent and quarterback rotations. Most people are guessing, but the sharp bettors are not.
Here are a few tips to approach the preseason with a better perspective, should you choose to dive in:
In the regular season, information is tightly controlled and oddsmakers react quickly to every bit of news.
In preseason? The information gaps are massive.
Coaches openly discuss playing time. Beat writers speculate on rotations. Players hint at usage on social media. If you know the starters are getting three full drives while the opponent is resting everyone, thats actionable and often exploitable intel. And unlike in the regular season, this info often slips through the cracks of the betting market.
It’s likely sharp bettors see valuable information before bookmakers. Oddsmakers try to keep track of it all, but there is less at stake in the preseason with lower limits if something is missed before a bettor gets a good number.
Every August, John Harbaughs 76% preseason win rate makes the rounds, and every year, bettors hammer Baltimore. But the sportsbooks are well aware of that trend.
The real value lies in why coaches do what they do.
Some want clean games and no injuries. Others want to test depth charts, settle QB battles or prove something. Mike Tomlin, for example, often plays starters longer than expected to set a tone. Meanwhile, Sean McVay doesnt play starters at all.
Understanding coaching motivation, not just track records, gives you a sneak peak into potential value spots as lines open.
Preseason lines can look weird. Seeing the Chiefs as 4-point underdogs to a bottom-feeder team might make you want to grab Kansas City, but this is not the Patrick Mahomes-led team, and the betting market is pricing in information you likely missed.
QB depth matters more in August than it does in January.
A team with two fringe roster guys fighting for a spot can be far more dangerous than a team who has its depth chart solidified and is simply getting the rust off. Finding small edges within the landscape of QB battles can lead to value in preseason betting.
Last year, for example, the Cowboys leaned heavily on Trey Lance. Not because they wanted to win games, but to evaluate him and drum up trade interest. This could have opened value in games where Lance would be facing teams working through multiple low-level players fighting for roster spots or could’ve led to a fade of Lance, depending on your belief in his ability.
Heres how he performed:
Thats 113 pass attempts in three games. The takeaway: It wasnt about winning; it was about evaluation. Though the Cowboys ended the preseason with a 1-2 record, betting markets reacted to Lances status as the Cowboys saw an influx of wagers, closing as bigger favorites than they opened in two of the three matchups.
A teaser in sports betting is a type of parlay where you can adjust the point spread or total in your favor (usually at least six points) in multiple wagers, but both wagers must win for you to cash. They offer fixed pay structures, which typically arent worth a bet but the preseason is not typical. In the regular season, teasing a 7-point favorite down to -1 or lowering a total from 47 to 41 is commonplace. But in the preseason, teasers become more valuable.
Why? Because points are scarce.
When totals are sitting in the low 30s, like the 32.5 total in this years Hall of Fame Game, each point is worth more. A 6-point teaser that moves an underdog from +1 to +7 is much more impactful when a game is expected to be a 13-10 type of matchup. The less room for variance, the better.
If you’re playing teasers, aim for low-total games and look to grab key numbers, especially in matchups where scoring is expected to be ugly which, in preseason, is most of them.
Betting NFL preseason isnt about which team will be better this season. Its about whos playing, for how long and why it matters. If youre looking for soft numbers and mis-priced info, this is your window.
So yes, preseason betting is 100% worth it. Just dont treat it like September football. Treat it like an info war, and make sure youre the one winning it.