Around one year ago at this time, the Las Vegas Raiders were supposedly buoyant.
The malignant approach of fired head coach Josh McDaniels had been exercised from the franchise, victory cigars were a thing again, players felt heard, and even Las Vegas team owner Mark Davis seemed to have a renewed pep of optimism in his step. Even with a subpar 2-3 record in the P.M. (post-McDaniels) era, things were starting to feel right again heading into mid-December of 2023. There was hope. And as the remainder of the season unfurled, it seemed well-founded.
The Raiders and interim head coach Antonio Pierce would take McDaniels 3-5 start and marry it to a 5-4 finish. Rookie quarterback Aidan OConnell would replace the benched Jimmy Garoppolo and look like a feasible project. Even skeptical wideout Davante Adams was willing to give the situation another chance. It all had the makings of something with … well, it had makings. That was a start.
On Sunday, that start finally and fully cratered. Frankly, if were being honest, the implosion really began at the turn into October, when the 2-2 Raiders began an epic descent to the depths of the AFC, by virtue of a losing streak that reached nine games with Sundays 28-13 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a defeat that left Las Vegas sitting at 2-11 and tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL but also without OConnell, who appeared to suffer a significant leg injury in the loss. And if the NFL draft were to begin today, the Raiders would own the No. 1 overall pick on tiebreakers and with significant gusto.
That 2023 post-McDaniels buoyancy? The 2024 Raiders are a cinder block locked in a safe buried under the Titanic.
Now that I think about it, strike the previous assessment. This plummet to an all-too-familiar depth didnt start in October. It began last offseason, when the Raiders knew they had a lingering quarterback problem on their hands and answered it by signing journeyman Gardner Minshew to a two-year, $25 million contract. A bridge starter deal in March that ultimately constructed a bridge to nowhere. That is, unless the ultimate plan was to groom OConnell a 2023 fourth-round pick with just enough talent to lose his starting job to Minshew into something greater than anyone anticipated.
I dont think that was the plan. I think the Raiders brass, including general manager Tom Telesco, believed Michael Penix Jr. would fall far enough in the 2024 draft to make his selection viable on their own draft board. What the front office didnt anticipate was that Penix had a higher premium on him in other organizations, and that the 2024 pool of quarterbacks was exponentially better than what was coming in the 2025 pipeline.
If were going to get brutally honest about the Raiders, wed begin with Davis. But thats a story for another time. Well get there at some point. Instead, lets bypass Davis for the time being and point straight to that quarterback spot. But rather than dredge up why Las Vegas didnt act more aggressively in what might turn out to be a historically great quarterback draft in 2024, lets accept that their top pick tight end Brock Bowers is an immense mismatch cornerstone to build around. And lets look at what the Raiders options are from this point on.
First, lets try to clean up a little bit of reporting chaos surrounding the quarterback situation. There have been competing claims about whether or not Davis mandated the selection of a quarterback in the next NFL Draft. After speaking to a pair of sources inside the team, this is what I have been told: Davis wants some kind of meaningful plan and long-term resolution at the quarterback spot. As of now, that has not included directly telling the front office what they have to do or who they have to draft. However, theres clearly a perception inside the Raiders that Davis isnt satisfied with the status quo at the position and believes this next offseason will be a key pivot point for the franchise.
With that in mind, here are two primary points that I have been directed toward.
While Brady has only a 5 percent ownership stake in the Raiders, Ive been told a significant verbal proviso from Davis in the agreement for Brady buying into the franchise was that he will weigh in heavily on the football operations side of the ledger. And a large part of that responsibility will be to help fix or at the very least, brutally assess all the moves surrounding the quarterback depth chart. Davis is looking for an honesty broker when it comes to cutting through the noise. Unlike Telesco or Pierce or anyone else offering an opinion, Brady doesnt have the looming concern about his job status. He has both the background to offer a weighty assessment and the freedom to be blunt about it. He doesnt have to fear Daviss vantage. And from what Ive been told Davis absolutely wants to hear it from someone who isnt worried about being fired.
As one source put it, Its not like weve had meetings with Brady sitting in them. But [Brady] isnt a figurehead. [Mark Davis] obviously respects him. This is what he wants and its the whole point [of Bradys ownership]. [Brady] will impact some decisions, or, hes going to impact Marks opinion. Its the same thing at this point. Its not like [the front office] doesnt matter. But its not like Mark will blow Tom off when it comes to the quarterbacks and where it goes not happening. Its the opposite. Mark will ask him, What do you think? and then thats what Mark thinks. What Tom will say about quarterbacks, Id bet you thats what goes. Thats what I think will happen. Maybe Im wrong. Well see. But I think who [Tom] likes, Mark likes. Well see. Its gonna be a ride.
If thats reality, then Brady might as well be the person selecting the Raiders quarterback for 2025. And maybe he will be.
With that in mind, if the Raiders end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, its worth examining the solidly long relationship that he has had with Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who Brady has known on a personal basis going all the way back to Shedeurs days as a nationally recruited high school player in Texas. Over the years, Brady has trained, counseled and repeatedly had glowing reviews of Sanders talent and work ethic. And its worth noting that Sanders also fits Bradys ideal: A quarterback who took his time to learn and develop his craft inside a program. Yes, Sanders did it in at two different colleges, following his father Deion Sanders first at Jackson State and then at Colorado but he also could have entered the draft after his 2023 season and been selected inside the first two rounds of the 2024 draft. But he returned to Colorado instead, sharpening a resume that will make him a hammer lock first-round pick in the 2025 selection process.
And not that it matters but it kind of does with Shedeur Sanders Deion has appeared on video telling Raiders coach Antonio Pierce draft those Sanders boys, referring to Shedeur and his brother, Colorado safety Shilo Sanders, who is also projected as a late-round NFL Draft pick.
Its hard to ignore that theres a lot of traction to all of this. If the New York Giants dont end up with the No. 1 pick in the draft which, at this point, the Giants are favored to land that spot then it puts the Raiders squarely in position to take a player with whom Davis has had an interesting interaction and who Brady clearly likes.
Which takes us to the second point that Ive been directed to.
Realistically, some other names are going to come up in the Raiders effort to resolve their quarterback problem. The Minnesota Vikings Sam Darnold if he does indeed hit free agency (which is arguable at this stage) is a player that Las Vegas should be extremely interested in. If he continues on his current trajectory, the Atlanta Falcons Kirk Cousins is another capable veteran starter who could find himself available this next offseason. Aaron Rodgers? He is a name that will get circulated.
One thing I want everyone to keep in mind about all of these other names: At this stage, theyre all more expensive than a rookie quarterback. Unless the Vikings choose to sign Darnold and then trade current rookie J.J. McCarthy or the Falcons suddenly choose to move on from Penix, which seems less likely than ever the best options on the table are going to be expensive. Acquiring either McCarthy or Penix on a rookie quarterback deal would be great, but I will bet both have evaluations similar to Sanders by the end of this draft rotation. Which means you just draft Sanders, rather than complicating your life.
What about Darnold in free agency? If he finishes the season strong, hes going to come off at $40 million per year (and maybe $50 million by the end of this season) in open-market bidding. Cousins via trade? I highly doubt Atlanta would be willing to eat the majority of his accelerated cap hit just to get to Penix, so he would also be fairly expensive. Rodgers? Its not even worth breaking down his candidacy. Theres no reason for the Raiders to sign Rodgers and no reason for Rodgers to play for Las Vegas. It would be a catastrophe for both sides at this point.
The likeliest path from what I was told from two Raiders sources is targeting potential extensions inside the team and then prioritizing the selection of the best rookie quarterback, followed by a penitent development of the roster. Could that mean a pivot away from Pierce as head coach after only one season? That all depends on how the 2024 campaign ends and also the available options for pairing with a new starting quarterback.
Whats clear at this point is that there is no defined, locked-in plan. Theres still four games to be played, including against a Falcons team this week that struggling to tread water in the NFC and a Los Angeles Chargers franchise in the Week 18 season finale that may need a win to make the postseason. Between that, two games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints that are winnable, but also capable of pushing the Raiders off the No. 1 pick.
Its a difficult position to be in for this franchise. But also one that took root long ago. And at this point, the Raiders have nobody to blame but ownership, which should have seen this coming.
ieuhky