Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, Im going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.
Games you want to binge are like the show you cant miss; youre watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.
Games you want to stream are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps youre finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of must-starts, we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.
Lastly, the games you want to skip are like the shows youre leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they arent the best environment for fantasy football.
Lets dive into my Week 14 Fantasy Football Viewers Guide.
One of the most consequential games on the Week 14 schedule will be the Seahawks-Cardinals rematch. According to NFL.com, the Seahawks have a 75% chance of making the playoffs with a win and a 25% chance with a loss. The Cardinals jump to 61% with a win and plummet to 11% with a loss.
This one is big.
What fantasy football players might not want to hear is that this game could come down to which defense rules the day. Somewhat quietly, the Cardinals and Seahawks defenses have been among the most improved in the second half and top-10 in EPA per play allowed since Week 8.
Arizona is seventh and has really improved as a pass defense. The Cardinals have played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL on third and fourth down. Its been an interesting schematic twist from Jonathan Gannon and Nick Rallis and the results have been extremely positive. Theyve sent some complex pressure packages in front of those coverages, which has put some potent offenses in a bind. Arizona ranks fifth in passing success rate allowed since Week 8.
Look for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be the focal point of this week’s Seahawks passing attack. JSN is 10th in the NFL in yards per route run against man coverage this season, breaking out to become a true weapon out of the slot.
JSN has also become Geno Smiths late-down answer when defenses send extra pressure. He cleared 100 yards against this Cardinals team the last time they faced off because of these new defensive trends. He will need to come up big once again.
Despite that success in the passing game, the run defense is vulnerable, ranking 27th in success rate allowed since Week 8. Can the Seahawks take advantage of this? Their run game has been toothless for quite some time.
Since Week 8, Kenneth Walker III has averaged 2.99 yards per carry and scored just once. He still ranks highly in fantasy football but weirdly, his passing-game usage has been the lipstick on the pig this season for fantasy. Walker is eighth among running backs in targets, tied with Justice Hill and sandwiched between Chase Brown and Rachaad White. Bet you didnt see that coming. If you really squint at it, besides rushing touchdowns, hes having a similar season to Javonte Williams.
I continue to be bothered by the oil-and-water effect of their run-and-pass game marriage. Geno Smith has 449 dropbacks with a 70.2% completion rate out of shotgun and just 44 dropbacks from under-center with a 53.8%. He has a clear stylistic preference. However, Walker profiles as a downhill under-center back. Theyve struggled to marry those concepts. So, even in a plus matchup, unless the Seahawks run game can unveil some wrinkles we have not seen, they may not be able to take advantage of this matchup.
On the other side, the Seahawks run defense has been one of the best in the league of late. Leonard Williams has been playing out of his mind for the last month-plus and rookie Byron Murphys return has made a difference to the lines play. Mike MacDonald has shuffled the linebacker corps with new additions and has settled into a group that makes his defense work. This group blotted out the Cardinals’ run game in Week 12 and that will be critical to going 2-0 against their division rival.
The one weaker point in the Seahawks’ surging defense defense is the coverage of their perimeter corners. However, anyone following this Arizona offense knows that Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.s perimeter chemistry has been an issue on curls, comebacks and go routes. Harrison has best been deployed on routes working over the middle but that brings him into the crosshairs of Seahawks star Devon Witherspoon and the new-look linebackers. Murray will have to find Harrison and the rookie will have to show up at the catch point on those outside routes in ways weve yet to see this season for the Cardinals to sting this defense.
The Bills offense has so many different ways to beat you. Coming into a matchup against a Rams defense that has vulnerabilities in the secondary but a strong pass rush with young guys up front, there are two viable paths to wander.
The Bills can take the air out of the ball and establish the run. Their rushing game has been so dynamic and a source of big plays. James Cook has been explosive on multiple concepts and reminded everyone last week he can flip the field with big plays. His backup, Ray Davis, has an even higher success rate on the gap runs Joe Brady has leaned into since taking over the OC job. I wouldnt be shocked to see the run game being the focus for Buffalo.
If they take to the air, look for Khalil Shakir to get rolling. Shakir is the best pass-catcher on the team and has been the layup target for Josh Allen. Thatll be critical in the face of pressure. Shakir is one of the most efficient receivers when facing zone coverage, and the Rams give up the third-most points per dropback in zone coverage, per Fantasy Points Data.
On the Rams side of things, we know where the ball is going. While Copper Kupp remains a strong figure in this offense, its been clear since they both returned to action that Puka Nacua is the alpha of the room. As the above charts show, hes one of the best receivers at producing against man and zone coverage. Doesnt matter the look; Nacua is an advantage for the Rams. His biggest leap as an individual player has come at the catch point, where hes more consistent and aggressive at snagging balls outside of his frame.
The running back rotation is something to monitor for L.A. Rookie Blake Corum played a season-high 32% of snaps and got a lot of work in the first quarter. Sean McVay has discussed this as an effort to keep Corum fresh, which makes sense.
Kyren Williams sees most of his work on man and gap scheme runs and has a significantly higher success rate on those concepts. On the other hand, Corum is the better runner out of zone concepts so far. That makes this a solid duo, even if Williams is still the lead back. If anything ever happens to Williams from an injury standpoint, Corum is still one of the top stashes for fantasy playoff teams.
Buffalo presents a gettable matchup for the Rams running game. With their offensive line mostly healthy and Williams efficiency on the rise with Corum giving him some reps off, this should be a spot for the Rams to lean into the ground game.
The Chiefs have already secured a playoff spot and yet another AFC West title. Nevertheless, the Chargers can continue to establish their case as a legitimate playoff contender.
Los Angeles is coming off a week of extremely troubling play against a previously beatable Falcons defense. Atlanta entered the game with 10 total sacks; it left with 15. The interior offensive line has been a significant issue in both the run and pass game for the Chargers offense. The Chiefs defense has slipped down the rankings over the last few months but they have players up front who can wreak havoc on Justin Herbert.
If Hebrert can have the time and Ladd McConkey is cleared to play, hes in an excellent spot to hit Kansas City where its weakest.
McConkey has the third-highest yards per route run vs man coverage this season at 3.44. Hes just behind guys like A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson and just ahead of Nico Collins and CeeDee Lamb. Not bad. This week, he plays a Chiefs defense thats sixth in man coverage rate and allows much more production to slot receivers (most) than outside receivers (29th).
On the Chiefs side, the biggest area of intrigue is in the backfield. In his first game since Week 2, Isiah Pacheco played 33% of the Chiefs snaps and handled 47% of the backfield carries. Pacheco turned that work into seven carries for 44 yards on the ground, primarily on the back of one big run. Thats the plus Pacheco will add to this backfield. Kareem Hunt has gotten whats blocked but nothing more. As Pacheco continues to get ramped up, that explosive play potential should continue to move the needle.
Pachecos 6.1 yards per touch in Week 13 was higher than all but one of Hunts games this season.
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While the backfield was still split, Hunt saw his lowest usage since joining the Chiefs. He was on the field for a season-low 40% of the snaps and touched the ball just nine times. We should continue to see Hunt sprinkled in because he wont be a negative as a rusher but as the game goes on, Pacheco will put distance between himself and the veteran back.
The Chiefs passing game remains the same. Theyre playing more two tight end sets with Travis Kelce and Noah Gray, making the receivers even dicier bets. It isnt happening this week but there seems to be some indications that Marquise Brown could return in a few weeks. Thats critical. His return will shake up the receiver room even more and offer a skill set guys like Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins dont bring to the table.
Most important Falcons storyline: Kirk Cousins has dramatic passing splits against man and zone defenses this season.
This perfectly explains his meltdown last week against the Chargers, who run zone at the third-highest rate in the NFL. There were open receivers in that game, but by the time Cousins floaters actually reached the vicinity of the target, the zone had closed. Thats why Cousins has 10 of his 13 interceptions against zone coverage. He just cant drive the ball consistently between defenders at this point. All this is ominous going into Week 14 facing Cousins old team in Minnesota. Brian Flores Vikings defense has been fungible with coverage, but on the season, they have played zone at the sixth-highest rate and allowed the third-fewest points per dropback.
Most important Vikings storyline: One of the things I feel most confident in taking place over the next month is that Justin Jefferson, who hasn’t had a true “spike week” in a minute, is going to drop a banger of a game with north of 150 yards and multiple touchdowns to boost his year-end results. Maybe he’ll even do it twice. Jefferson is having an elite season by any advanced measure film, yards per route run, plays of 20-plus yards, etc. but is “only” on pace for 96-1,470-7 and averaging a career-low 14.1 half-PPR points per game. The universe almost always corrects itself in these strange types of statistical-anomaly seasons that cant be explained by anything but bad luck. My guess is he clears several of those above results by the time Week 18 ends.
I cant tell you when its coming; perhaps its this week against Atlanta. Make no mistake, thought, at some point in the next five games.
Most important Panthers storyline: Bryce Young has stacked three strong games together in his last few outings. He isnt breaking records or anything but he has scored four total touchdowns, is avoiding sacks, hasnt turned the ball over and has been a threat with his legs. Hes averaging 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt. The film has been night and day from some of the disaster-level outings we watched when he was a rookie. He looks like a functional NFL starting quarterback, which is a significant improvement over the 2023 product. Week 14 will provide the biggest test, as the Eagles are the best defense in football over the last two months. Conversely, these last three opponents have been a poor Giants pass defense, a Chiefs team thats struggled the last month-plus and the most beatable secondary in the league in Tampa Bay.
Most important Eagles storyline: A.J. Brown is having an absurd season from an efficiency standpoint, its just not reflecting in the box score because of the lack of passing volume in Philadelphia. Were hoping that the Bryce Young-led Panthers can keep up their recent solid stretch of play offensively in order to coax more out of the Eagles’ aerial attack. Otherwise, it looks like an ideal spot for the Eagles to saddle up Saquon Barkley for another massive outing against the Panthers’ 32nd-ranked rushing success rate defense.
Most important Browns storyline: The Jameis Winston production pump-up scam is fully in play in the Browns passing game, and its as gorgeous as you could imagine.
The Browns ranked dead last in catchable air yards with Deshaun Watson under center and No. 1 with Winston. Its incredible the life Winston, who is far from a flawless player, has brought to what was a dead passing game. With Cedric Tillman looking unlikely to suit up for this game, both Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore are starters in fantasy, while David Njoku remains a TE1.
Most important Steelers storyline: Russell Wilson is coming off one of the best passing performances of his NFL career. Considering the heights he reached in Seattle, thats saying something.
Wilson and George Pickens have been at their best destroying man coverage outside the numbers. In Week 14, theyll get a matchup with a Browns defense that plays a good amount of man coverage and single-high at the third-highest rate. Unlike the last time these two teams faced off, we should have a clear weather forecast on Sunday in Pittsburgh. We should see more points out of the Steelers this time around.
Most important Bears storyline: Thomas Brown has now been promoted twice in the span of a month. He went from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator when Shane Waldron was fired and is now the interim head coach in the wake of Matt Eberflus dismissal. Brown has been a positive influence on the offense, pushing the pass rates and cutting out useless offensive concepts during his brief time as the OC. Hopefully, with more influence in the building, well only see him lean further into things that work for Caleb Williams. On the other hand, with more responsibilities in his place as the head coach, he may have less time to tinker with the offensive playbook. Even if Brown doesnt become the head coach of the future, he carries a heavy responsibility to make sure Williams final weeks as a rookie are a positive experience.
Most important 49ers storyline: The 49ers playoff chances arent mathematically zero but it sure feels like one of the more difficult on- and off-field seasons for a contender in recent memories is all but over. That being said, there are still players were curious about tracking down the stretch. After injuries to the top two backs, Isaac Guerendo has jumped to near the top of that list. Hes not the same tempo or power runner as Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason. Instead, Guerendo profiles as more of the classic Shanahan-style outside zone slasher backs of old. Per Fantasy Points Data, Guerendo has seen the highest rate of carries on zone concepts this season (76.2%) and has averaged a beefy 6.19 yards per carry. He can reward fantasy gamers on just a small handful of touches, even if the overall efficiency isnt there.
Most important Bengals storyline: Despite their ineptitude on defense the Bengals offense is a machine. Joe Burrow has played like one of the best quarterbacks in the league and the offense is one of the most efficient when Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase are on the field together. Even Chase Brown has become a fringe RB1 in fantasy football. Theyve played well in difficult matchups this year but its at least worth noting the defense on the other side of the field, once painted with the same brush as the Bengals stop unit, has improved. Dallas is 10th in EPA per play allowed since Week 8. Getting Micah Parsons and others back in the mix has made this unit better, to the shock of no one. The Bengals’ playoff hopes are slim even with a win but a loss would end their slim-odds quest and may force guys like Higgins and perhaps even Chase into making business decisions with no contract extension on the horizon.
Most important Cowboys storyline: Mike McCarthy made several big statements about turning to Rico Dowdle as the feature back a few weeks ago. The coach has been true to his word. Dowdle has handled 68.3% of the team carries in the last two games and has six targets on 24 routes. You cant ask for much better usage at the running back position. Hes averaged 15.1 points per game in this span, cashing in on the opportunity. He gets a matchup this week with a Bengals defense that gives it up in every direction. Dowdle is playing for a contract this offseason, with the chance to re-sign with Dallas as their lead back in 2025.
One reason to maybe watch: Dont look now seriously, you dont need to watch, I can handle that for you but Will Levis is starting to string some acceptable games together.
Over the last four weeks, Levis trails only Jordan Love, Jared Goff and Jameis Winston in yards per pass attempt. The last one is ironic since Winston’s long been my half-joking comparison for Levis. Hes still capable of taking brutal sacks and committing turnovers but hes shown more clear upside as a passer with some steadiness mixed in since returning from injury. Hes cut the mistake-to-big-play ratio to something much more tolerable than his early season run. Levis mini-rebound has brought some life to the passing game, with consistent production going Calvin Ridleys way and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine consistently finding the end zone. The Titans have great matchups down the stretch with Jacksonville twice, Cincinnati and Indianapolis.
One reason to maybe watch: Its worth monitoring how Tyreek Hill finishes what will go down as a disappointing 2024 season.
Hill played at a legitimately historic pace last season but even when Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy this year, he has not been a consistently productive option. Were now reaching the cryptic social media portion of his campaign. Its probably time for Miami to expand what they do on offense beyond running the same old approach weve seen in the last three years. That got them in trouble for large parts of this season. Hill can, of course, be a part of an evolution of the Dolphins offense but I wonder if the team may take a hard look at how he finishes 2024 in deciding if thats what they want.
One reason to maybe watch: Both the Giants and Saints are in the exploratory youth section of the season. Players like Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. are obvious candidates for the Giants. Nabers should be viewed as an established player but Tracy is likely still auditioning for his 2025 gig. Despite recent fumbles, he still earned his highest snap share and route participation in a game with Devin Singletary active this season on Thanksgiving. He has a great matchup against a Saints team that ranks 28th in rushing EPA allowed since Week 8. On the other side, Kendre Miller is a young player who could be set to get his first fair shake with the post-Dennis Allen Saints.
Miller isnt a fantasy starter but he and Alvin Kamara should find open rushing lanes against a Giants defense thats been one of the most generous to running backs on the year.
One reason to maybe watch: Ill say, this game is a skip just because the Bucs should moonwalk to a win and the Raiders arent relevant at this stage of the season. However, I have an affinity for both offenses. Liam Coens Bucs have been a favorite of mine all year and they have a trio of fantasy starters in Bucky Irving, Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield with some solid supporting actors. Las Vegas offense took an interesting turn with Aidan OConnell under center. Hes the most aggressive 2024 Raiders passer and peppered his top guys. Brock Bowers (41%) and Jakobi Meyers (32%) accounted for almost three-fourths of the passing targets in Week 13. Both Bowers and Meyers clear 2.0 yards per route run vs. zone coverage and are set to face the NFLs most zone-heavy defense in Tampa Bay.