Despite a rather turbulent opening games against Idaho and Boise State (37-34), Oregon (12-0) made the necessary adjustments that allowed the Ducks to finish the regular season undefeated. The Ducks #2 SP+ offense ranks top-10 nationally in success rate, EPA/play and expected turnover margin. In spite of ruthless efficiency metrics, Oregon isnt quite as explosive as their 2023 version, ranking 86th in passes of 20+ yards (15.1%) and 94th in yards per successful rush (9.0). Defensively their secondary is superb, ranking 5th in pass success rate, but OU has been susceptible on the ground ranking 80th in EPA/rush and 75th in yards per successful rush.
The Nittany Lions (11-1) cruised through the first half with their closest victory being a thrilling Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC where PSU posted an 86%-win expectancy. They were so dominant that each of their other 10 victories carried near perfect 94%+ win expectancies, as PSU exhibited a non-Ohio State mastery of their B10 schedule. OC Andy Kotelnickis offense ranks 3rd in success rate, 5th in EPA/play and 8th in marginal efficiency. There are flaws though, with PSU checking in at a dismal 97th in yards per successful play and 85th in explosiveness, showing a reluctance to take chances downfield. The Nittany Lions Defense has been elite once again, ranking 3rd in SP+ and their lockdown defensive backfield allowing just 5.0 yards per dropback. Projected Top 15 2025 NFL Draft selection Abdul Carter leads a pass rush that ranks 17th overall with an 8.3% sack rate and 10th with a 40.3% pressure rate.
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· Date: Saturday, December 7, 2024· Time: 8:00 PM EST· Site: Lucas Oil Stadium· City: Indianapolis, IN· TV/Streaming: CBS
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The latest odds as of Tuesday morning courtesy of BetMGM:
The spread opened at an even Oregon -3 and toggled between -2.5 and -3.5 before currently reaching a consensus at -3.5 at time of print. The time to be Oregons moneyline was at the open, with -148 spiking to a current range of -170 and -180. Conversely PSU dropped at +124 and is now available at a high of +155. We got an initial game total line at 51.5 that has since dipped to 49.5 at most shops.
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:Wisconsin just took Oregon to the limit in a 16-13 nailbiter, while Penn State escaped with a one-point victory over Minnesota two weeks ago. With these two teams pretty closely matched in my opinion, and PSU very much in play on a neutral site field, I think the value is on Penn State on the moneyline for a tidy +150 return.
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