Its Thanksgiving this week and as is the case every year, the obvious and expected thing to write is everything youre thankful for.
But what about the things Im NOT thankful for??? How about that? Can I write that?
Cause Im pissed about the Commanders’ loss to Dallas last week. Seriously, man, make a kick. An extra point. Either one of them. Or a field goal. Or make a tackle on a kickoff return. Or dont fumble when youre finally driving down 13-9. Im angry about all of it. Or maybe try throwing deep to Terry McLaurin before its the end of the game. Cause Im not thankful about THAT either. Or the fact they left Luke Schoonmaker WIDE OPEN on a busted coverage. Not real thrilled about any of that.
You know what else Im not thankful for? Texas A&M (I grew up in College Station) losing to a 4-6 Auburn team in FOUR overtimes by dropping a two-point conversion. That sucked. Not thankful I wasted my Saturday night watching THAT. Or that I was second-screening it with Alabama (my son is a sophomore at Bama, so Ive been Roll Tiding for two years now) getting their butts kicked by Oklahoma. Jalen Milroe drives me crazy.
Not thankful for playing against Saquon Barkley in four leagues last week. That wasnt fun. Or that, when the game was over, and the Eagles were just trying to run out the clock and the Rams KNEW what Philly was going to do the Rams STILL couldnt stop a 70-yard TD run by Saquon AGAIN! How many of those can a defense give up before you just get cut from the league? Blew the Under on the game which totally should have hit, he said bitterly.
Not thankful about Quentin Johnston dropping what would have been a very long play or maybe a score on Monday night. Not real thrilled with Keenan Allen and Jaylen Waddle going OFF last week while, you know, SITTING ON MY BENCH.
Oh, you know what else Im NOT thankful for. My “Ride or Die,” Kyler Murray, being the ONLY QB in the last four games to NOT have at least 17 points against the Seahawks. Like, he was playing so well. And they were coming off the bye. He had TWO weeks to prepare and yet… ARGHHH! Would it kill him to throw ONE touchdown to Trey McBride? Just one? So yeah, not feeling that these days either.
Had the second highest score last week in my NBA fantasy league only to realize I was playing the highest scoring team in the league. Good times. Good times.
So, yeah, as you gather around the table this week with your loved ones, remember theres lots of stuff to NOT be thankful for. Definitely bring it up, loudly and often, hopefully after a few drinks. Thats what the holidays really are about.
HA.
Okay, I feel better now.
There are some things Im grateful for. Having this column that allows me to vent like that. Having a column like this that allows me to blatantly promote stuff. Like, at FantasyLife.com where we are doing a 50% OFF sale for Black Friday (you heard me FIFTY PERCENT OFF). You get 12 months of access to FantasyLife+, which includes our premium rankings tool, our award-winning projections, all our tools like start/sit, waiver tool, league sync, DFS player and ownership projections, DFS Pick’em builders for DraftKings Pick 6, Underdog and PrizePicks, sports betting player prop finder and game models, and much more, including the 2025 Rotoworld Draft Guide.
Thats right. The 2025 Rotoworld Draft Guide. You buy this now (and the deal expires Sunday at Midnight ET) and you not only gain access for the rest of this season, but you get the offseason, next draft season in August 2025, and the first 12 weeks of the 2025 season. Its 12 months of access.
There will never be a better deal than this. I know people say that all the time but its actually true here. Im not offering 50% again, okay? My marketing guy hates this, and I sort of blurted this out on the radio earlier today, so I was like screw it. One time only, 50% off, lets try it.
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And even if youre not interested in it, you should still check out FantasyLife.com, as we have tons of free content and we are giving away tickets to the College Football National Championship and to the Big Game in New Orleans in February.
You know what else Im actually thankful for, no cap? That I can say things like no cap and make my teenage daughters roll their eyes at me and tell me how cringy I am. And I am, legit, thankful for this column. As I have said before I really dont know how much longer I can keep doing this so, Im trying to appreciate it while I still am.
And the column is useless if no one is reading it. My bosses here at NBC are very, very happy which means so many of you have graciously followed me and found your way here and I am incredibly grateful for that.
So, thank you. Seriously.
I am thankful for my health, family, friends, and my NBC family. I cant tell you how many times my wife has heard me laugh out loud and turn to me, saying what? And I just hold up my phone. Its my show group chat. We laugh way too much doing our shows.
And Im thankful to my producer Damian Dabrowski, who, as always, has helped me with, well, everything, including this column at various points.
Lifes too short. We have a few days off here. So, between football and food, take a few moments over the next few days to tell someone they mean a lot to you. You never know when you wont have that chance again. It takes just a few moments, and itll mean a lot to you and to them, you know? You will never regret doing it.
By the way, hey, you mean a lot to me.
Lets get to it.
After mocking Tommy DeVitos hand gesture celebration last week, Baker Mayfield was asked postgame if he has any Italian heritage. He responded: I havent done a 23andMe. Well, I have looked into Mayfields ancestry, and it turns out he is 73% QB1 on his fantasy side. Mayfield is QB4 on the season and has finished as a top 10 QB in eight of his 11 starts this season (theres that 73%), along with five weeks finishing in the top five. Now he faces a Panthers team that is allowing touchdown passes at the highest rate. Carolina also ranks 32nd in pressure rate. The QB1s are a proud people, and I see Mayfield making them proud again this week. Hes my QB6 this week.
Over the past four weeks, the Raiders are allowing 24.0 fantasy PPG to opposing quarterbacks. During that same stretch, they are also allowing touchdown passes at the highest rate in the league and, going back to Week 5, Vegas has given up 18-plus points to a quarterback in six of its last seven games. Meanwhile, after a very slow start to his fantasy season, putting up less than 15 fantasy points in four of his first six games of the season, Patrick Mahomes has now bested that mark in five straight games. He has also thrown for three touchdown passes in three of his last four games. When youre giving thanks on Thursday, remember to save a thank you for the fantasy gods for restoring Mahomes fantasy production to us. Mahomes is a top 10 fantasy QB in Week 13.
Others receiving votes: Only one time this season has C.J. Stroud put up more than 18 fantasy points. That came back in Week 4 when he went for 23.5 on the Jaguars. Last year against Jacksonville, Stroud had games of 20.6 and 30.9 fantasy points against them. Not many people know this, but C.J. stands for Crushes Jaguars Stroud. True fact. But I see Stroud having another big game this week against a Jaguars defense that is allowing a league-high 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Get this: Seven of the last nine quarterbacks to face Jacksonville have gone for 20-plus fantasy points. Yes, Matthew Stafford doesnt have a cool first name like Crushes Jaguars. Because he has the COOLEST name of all: Matthew. Glad we all agree on that. Anyway, Stafford has a great matchup this week against a Saints defense that over the last four weeks has the leagues 31st ranked pass defense. And, of the last seven quarterbacks the Saints have faced, five of them have thrown for at least 275 yards.
Since Week 5, Jordan Love has finished as a top 12 quarterback just three times. Its been even worse recently. Over the past four weeks, Green Bay ranks top three in rush rate overall and in the red zone. Not surprisingly, in Green Bays three games over that stretch, Love has scored less than 15 fantasy points in two of them. I know, I know the Packers are trying to play the kind of ball-control style that translates to success in the postseason. But that does nothing for people who have Jordan Love and are trying to get into the fantasy postseason, now does it. Whats more important: ONE teams postseason, or the postseason fortunes of TENS OF THOUSANDS of Jordan Love managers? Exactly. The Packers are selfish. Anyway, its likely we see with our eyes (on NBC and Peacock, Im a company man) another disappointing fantasy performance from Love this week against Miami. So far this season, only three quarterbacks have scored 17-plus fantasy points against the Dolphins. Miami also allows the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt. Add in the fact the Mike McDaniel is likely to try and run the ball a lot since Tua has struggled so much on the road in cold weather and its unlikely Romeo Doubs plays (this is the Thursday night game and Doubs is in the concussion protocol) I have Love outside the top 20 at the QB position this week.
Thanksgiving is a great time to see family. Grandparents, nieces, nephews, uncles, aunts, cousins. But if I may, Id suggest you avoid one particular cousin this Thanksgiving: Kirk Cousins. Its a short week and you get the jokes you get. I apologize for nothing. Anyways, Cousin Kirk is facing that tough Chargers defense this week and Atlantas implied team total is just 23 points. That matters because when the Falcons score less than 30 points this season, Cousins is averaging just 10.3 PPG. And that Chargers defense is truly tough on quarterbacks. Only two quarterbacks have thrown for 250-plus yards on LAC this year (Lamar Jackson just threw for 177 against them on Monday night). And get this: Five of the six QBs to score 18 or more fantasy points on the Chargers this season did it with either a rushing score or by running for more than 40 yards. And while I dont know if Kirk is a kissing Cousins, hes definitely not a running Cousins. I have him down at QB22 this week.
Kyren Williamss ball security issues popped up again on Sunday night, fumbling twice against the Eagles and losing one of them. Thats the bad news. The good news is that fumbles equal minus-2 fantasy points, while rushing scores equal plus-6. Yes, its true: 6 > -2. Im very smart. Im also smart enough to know that Williams has a good opportunity to get multiple plus-6s against a Saints team that has allowed multiple rushing scores to running backs in four of their past six games. Dont forget: Williams ranks second in both red zone and goal-line rushes this season. Williams should also be able to do some damage against the Saints before reaching the end zone. New Orleans allows the second-most YPC (5.1) to running backs this season and six of the last seven RBs to face the Saints scored at least 16 fantasy points. I have Williams as RB4 this week.
In the three games since Zack Moss was placed on injured reserve, Chase Brown has averaged 27 touches per game. That includes a full 100% of the team’s RB touches over that stretch, along with a 17% target share and five-plus receptions in every game. Granted, Zac Taylor said this week that he wants to manage Browns usage a little more going forward, but lets first manage our panic over Taylor saying that. Cincinnati is in must-win territory now, so Taylor is still going to lean on his best back. And hey, if Browns workload drops 10%, hes still getting NINETY PERCENT of Cincinnatis RB touches. I like that a lot against a Steelers defense that has allowed 20-plus fantasy points to running backs in eight straight games. As anyone with kids under 5 know, Chase is on the Case!
Bucky Irving (two first names, always a crowd pleaser) is coming off season-highs in touches (18), scrimmage yards (151) and target share (20%). He also out-snapped Rachaad White last week for the first time in a game in which they were both healthy. What a showoff. But I like Irving to show out again this week against a Panthers defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season. And to be clear, its not just because of one good Week 12 performance. Since Week 6, Irving is RB10 in PPG with 15-plus points in five of six games during that stretch. By the way, did you know that an anagram for Bucky Irving is Big Curvy Kin? But I suppose I already touched on kissing cousins earlier. Irving is a top 20 back for me this week.
Others receiving votes: Over the past four weeks, Chicago is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to running backs. During that same stretch, the Bears have also given up the third-most rushing touchdowns (6). Now they face a back who leads the NFL in goal-line rushes, David Montgomery, who may be bent on revenge facing his former team. Okay, maybe not revenge. I suppose that going from the Chicago Bears to these modern-day Lions wouldnt make anyone vengeful. Lets say Montgomery is bent on gratitude. Either way, assuming he plays (he got banged up last Sunday but as of this writing is expected to play) I like his Week 13 matchup. I also like the matchup for Tony Pollard this week, unfortunately, against my Washington Commanders. Over the past four weeks, teams facing Washington are averaging the third-most RB rushes per game at 28.3. The Commanders have also allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to backs since Week 6. The Giants have allowed 17-plus fantasy points to a running back in each of their past three games and, over the past four weeks, the Giants are allowing 133 rushing yards per game to RBs. Maybe the Giants can bring former scout team safety Daniel Jones back and give him a go at linebacker? Its an idea. Anyway, give me some Rico Dowdle, who is coming off a season-high 22 touches last week, this week against the Giants.
The Vikings have not given up double-digit fantasy points to an opposing running back in four straight games. Over that same stretch, Minnesota is allowing only 37 rushing yards per game to backs and 2.7 YPC. Its just more of what the Vikings defense has been doing all season. Only three RBs have rushed for more than 51 yards against the Vikings this season. For good measure, Minnesota also limits running backs in the passing game, allowing the second-lowest catch rate to running backs. So, Conner will have a tough go trying to run on the Vikings, and he will have a tough go catching passes against the Vikings. Outside of the Cardinals letting Conner throw the ball or attempt field goals, Im not very optimistic about his fantasy upside this week. I have him outside my top 20 at the position.
Those who are 3 years old and younger cant understand this, but having to watch the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving used to be a bad thing about the holiday. Heck, not only do my toddler league mates struggle to grasp this, but many of them also still struggle with object permanence. Idiots. But times have changed. The Lions being bad at football was way back when kneecaps werent even a Thanksgiving spread staple. But the Lions are good now. Very good. And thats very bad for DAndre Swift. Only three running backs this season have scored 15-plus fantasy points against the Lions. Over the past four weeks, Detroit is allowing the third-fewest PPG to backs. A big reason for that is that the Lions rank top three in fewest receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position. Its a bad matchup for Swift. His Thanksgiving upside is further impacted by the fact that over the past two games, Roschon Johnson has seen 86% of Chicago’s red zone rushes and three of its four goal-line carries. Im putting Swift outside my top 25 at the position this week, even though most in my toddler league cant count past 25. The dummies.
Since Pittsburghs Week 9 bye, Jaylen Warren is averaging more yards per game than Najee Harris and has played only seven fewer snaps. Also, since the bye, Harris is averaging only 2.9 YPC and he has less 3.6 YPC in all three of Pittsburghs games. (Remind me to not go on vacation wherever Najee Harris spent his bye week.) Anyway, over that same four-week time period, Cincinnati ranks top 10 in fewest fantasy points and rushing yards allowed to running backs. All that is more than enough to put Harris outside my top 30 RBs this week.
Back when the Texans and Jaguars played in Week 4, Nico Collins put up a 12-151-1 line on 15 targets for 33.1 fantasy points. He shredded Jacksonville. But instead of the Jaguars defense viewing that as a low point to try to improve from, it seems they decided to just live at that low point for the rest of their existence. Because for the season, Jacksonville is allowing the most yards per game and most touchdowns on deep passes. And, over the past four weeks, Jacksonville is allowing the most yards per game to wide receivers and the third-most PPG to the position. I have Collins as WR3 this week.
Since Russell Wilson became the starter, George Pickens has a 29% target share and, over the same span, Pickens also leads all wide receivers with eight end zone targets. He also leads the league in fans saying, wait, what the hell did he just do? But, even so, its hard not to feel good about Pickens heading into a matchup against a Bengals team that has allowed 18-plus fantasy points to an opposing WR in five straight games. Pickens has nearly unlimited upside in this game. Maybe not enough to take on the Mr. Unlimited nickname, but a lot. Hes a top 10 wide receiver.
Courtland Sutton reworked his contract this offseason and the result was a more incentive-laden deal. Heading into Week 13, he is six yards away from earning a $250,000 bonus and 321 yards away from getting $1.5 million. While Sutton could easily get the six yards in the first few plays of the game, he wont reach that second one by games end Sunday. I mean, I think he wont. He probably wont. But he might get close. Because get this: Since Week 8, Sutton leads the NFL in receiving yards and is WR3 in PPG (20.3). Hes had at least a 25% target share and 70 receiving yards in all five games during that stretch. Over that same timeframe, Cleveland is allowing the fourth-most yards per game to receivers. Sutton is money this week. Both figuratively and literally.
The Packers are allowing the third-highest catch rate to tight ends this season, and TEs who have seen a 20% target share against Green Bay this season are averaging 16.7 PPG. Considering Jonnu Smith has a target share of at least 22% in three of his past four games, and four of his past six, he could be in line for a nice night on Thursday. Well, as nice a night as someone who lives in Miami can have in 20-something degree Wisconsin weather. Smith is TE5 this week.
Others receiving votes: Over the past four weeks, the Commanders are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed on deep passes. Now they face Calvin Ridley who, since the DeAndre Hopkins trade, is sixth in the NFL in receiving yards per game at 90.2. Since Week 3, Jakobi Meyers has just a single game with fewer than seven targets. Even with Aidan OConnell or Desmond Ridder (maybe we see both!) at the controls, I like that kind of usage for Meyers against a Chiefs team that is allowing the fifth-most PPG to WRs over the past four weeks. The offensive coordinator change sure has gotten more out of DJ Moore, amiright. Hey, I wrote that joke high out of my mind on tryptophan. Tis the season. But for real: Moore has seven receptions in both games since Shane Waldron was excused, compared to just one such game previously. Moore has also seen 82% of his receiving yards come after the catch in those games along with a 2.2 aDOT. Now he takes on a Lions team that allows the most receptions and yards to wide receivers on passes that go fewer than five air yards. Since Week 7, Khalil Shakir ranks fourth among wide receivers in receptions per game (7.2) and hes notched at least six receptions in every game hes played over that stretch. He should have a good day this week against a 49ers defense that allows the fourth-most yards per reception to the slot. The Panthers have given up the most touchdowns to tight ends this season. They have also allowed 14-plus points to a tight end in four of their past five games. So, give me some Cade Otton in Carolina this week. Over the past four weeks, Tucker Kraft has seen 50% of Green Bays red zone attempts. That could even go up this week with Romeo Doubs unlikely to play. Kraft also has a good matchup against a Dolphins team that allows the fourth-most PPG to tight ends (21.4). Plus, and this is just a hunch, but if anyone is going to catch a touchdown pass in 20-degree weather on Thanksgiving night, a 6-foot-5, 258-pound Packers tight end from South Dakota feels like a safe bet.
While Saquon Barkley was busy destroying the NFL and dominating the headlines, the Eagles quietly learned how to play pass defense. Since its Week 5 bye, Philadelphia is allowing the second-fewest PPG to wide receivers. The only WRs to score even 10-plus fantasy points against the Eagles over that stretch are JaMarr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp and Nacua is the only WR to have more than 60 receiving yards during that span. Is it possible Zay Flowers has a good game on Sunday? Sure, its possible. But not likely. I have him outside my top 20 WRs.
The Jaguars have a bottom-six implied team total this week. So, points will likely be hard to come by on the scoreboard, and fantasy points will likely be hard to come by for Brian Thomas, Jr. especially. Houston allows the lowest completion rate on deep passes for the season. And, if thats not bad enough, Thomas is likely to get the Derek Stingley, Jr. shadow this week. Sure, if Trevor Lawrence plays, Thomas gets a very slight upgrade. But Im still keeping him outside my top 30 wide receivers this week.
Kyle Pitts has less than three points in two of his past three games. Now, if Kyle Pitts was an NHL player and this was a fantasy hockey column, scoring less than three points wouldnt be a huge cause for concern. But I have to inform you that this is not a hockey column. (Sorry to my Canadian readers.) Get this: Over the past four weeks, Pitts is TE37 in PPG and he has just one game all season with a target hare of 20% or more and that came way back in Week 7. Now he gets a Chargers defense that is allowing the fifth-fewest yards per reception to tight ends. The Chargers have also allowed just one touchdown to a TE all season. I have Pitts down at TE20 this week. Or, for my Canadian readers who have stuck around I have Pitts down at TEh20 this week.