Texas (10-1) is having its best regular season in recent memory, with only SEC powerhouse Georgia handing them a loss to date. In fact, Texas achieved a 96%+ win expectancy in every victory except for an ugly 20-10 slog against @Arkansas (52%). Offensively the Longhorns rank 4th in SP+, 8th in rushing success rate and 15th in EPA/dropback. HC Steve Sarkisian can scheme winning gameplans in either phase of the game and have the benefit of falling back on the nations 2nd rated defense. UTs elite secondary ranks 1st in yards per dropback allowed (4.0) and 2nd in EPA/dropback, while their rush D ranks 12th in EPA/rush but also is allowing an elevated 43.3% rushing success rate (73rd).
Texas A&M (8-3) dropped their opening game to a one-loss Notre Dame but then proceeded to go on a 7-win streak that included victories over @Florida, Arkansas, Missouri and LSU. However entering this game, the Aggies have lost two consecutive SEC contests to @South Carolina and @Auburn, so theyre looking to regroup. A&M is running the ball effectively, ranking 30th in rushing success rate and 24th in yards before contact. Their pass game has been plagued by inconsistency with a 58.8% completion rate (93rd), which lead to HC Mike Elko choosing to start dual-threat QB Marcel Reed over Conner Weigman. The Aggies rank 18th in SP+ defensive rating and ranks 13th in success rate allowed (36%). The number one problem has been allowing too many big plays, with Texas A&M ranking 121st in marginal explosiveness and 124th in yards per successful play allowed (14.0).
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· Date: Saturday, November 30, 2024· Time: 7:30 PM EST· Site: Kyle Field· City: College Station, TX· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+
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The latest odds as of Wednesday morning courtesy of BetMGM:
This contest opened at Texas -4 but has since spiked to -5.5 and even a stray -6 if you shop it. There hasnt been much movement on the moneyline, with A&M improving only slightly from an open of +185 to a market-high of +195 right now. Same with the game total, which has not budged from the initial 48.5.
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:Texas A&M has an outside shot at a CFP appearance with an upset of Texas and a victory in the SEC Championship game, while Texas is essentially locked in. Against the better defense on their schedule, Notre Dame and South Carolina, Texas A&Ms inconsistent offense got exposed. I dont think the Aggies can keep pace with Texas, so im laying the -5.5 points, which I think gets to -7 by gameday.
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