Welcome to the Fantasy Vibe Check, your place to vent about the highs, lows and head-scratchers from the NBA and fantasy basketball.
Check out who I’m vibing with, and let me know in the comments or @DanTitus about what’s got you feeling a type-of-way about fantasy basketball.
Lets talk about a consensus first-round draft pick whos struggled to meet expectations in the first month of the season. Ive fielded many questions about whether Haliburton is a buy-low, someone to trade or a hold. I have him rostered too, and I can say Im holding onto better days because, while hes been inconsistent, there’ve been plenty of moments where hes looked like a first-round talent.
However, I cant get my head around whats going on with Haliburtons success at home versus on the road this season. Take a look at the stark differences between these scenarios:
Clearly, somethings amiss with his scoring and efficiency numbers dipping so drastically when hes away from the Fieldhouse arena. Haliburton was visibly frustrated following the Bucks game on November 22:
There have been rumors that he is possibly still dealing with lingering back issues from last season, but he’s clocking 34 minutes a night and has played in every game this year. So whether thats the case or not, hes willingly playing through it. He’s fourth in the league in touches per game, and top 10 in assists and steals he’s hooping despite his road woes.
Still, fantasy managers must decide whether it’s worth riding out, selling or buying low. I can argue all three, but considering hes fresh off dropping a Hali-esque 34-points (12-23 FG, 9-18 3PT, 1-1 FT) with 13 dimes and three steals on Monday night, Id be holding or buying after this next home stand to get a better price. Hes figuring it out.
Speaking specifically about Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, Duren started every game hes been active this season, but Pistons HC JB Bickerstaff hasnt been shy about dolling out a handful of minutes to Stewart because of his defense and 3-point shooting.
I’m not saying Stewart is good at shooting them, but hell at least hoist em. Floor stretching matters nowadays, so its another reason to spell Duren. However, its time to recognize that Beef Stew isnt going away. Durens counting stats are all down. Durens block and assist percentages are up, but the downtick in minutes, shot volume and usage has soured his fantasy value, and Id be looking to sell.
Taking Mondays matchup versus the Raptors as an example, Duren put up strong numbers, scoring 13 points with 12 boards, four assists and four blocks in 25 minutes. Stewart finished with nine points (3-6 FG, 3-3 FT), seven boards, two dimes, a steal and three blocks in 23 minutes. Counting stats aside, Stewart’s imprint was all over the game, helping mount a comeback and making plays in crunch time over Duren an important factor when assessing the significance of Stewarts role. The Pistons won that game by way of Jaden Ivey, but Stewarts hustle and grit impacted the game beyond the box score. Its why I think we should be concerned about having Duren shares.
Look at the splits for the two centers this year:
Stewart has been more impactful on a per-min basis in fantasy and, with his edge in stocks and efficiency, he should be rostered in more leagues than he is. Stewart is 24% rostered in 9-cat leagues and ranks 103rd coming into Tuesday. Alternatively, Duren ranks 182 with a 96% rostership. The Pistons are 8-11, but the East is terrible, so theyre hunting for a play-in spot. Its great to see them competing and winning.
Theyll need just as much from Beef Stew as they do Duren to keep that going. The margin between the two continues to lessen game over game, so if Stewart is around on waivers, make that move. If you have Duren, Id try to find a deal after stringing together a few double-doubles.
Ive given more than enough time locking Smith into my lineup to put up with the rollercoaster of inconsistency any longer. Despite starting in all 18 games, he ranks 149th in 9-cat leagues and 161 in points leagues while sporting career lows in minutes, usage, points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks five categories!
Thats far from ideal and with his shot volume decreasing and Tari Eason playing some of the best two-way basketball in the league; Smiths workload and outlook looks sus. The upside to Smith was his ability to hit 3s, rebound and swat shots. Hell continue seeing minutes in the high 20s, but with the Rockets having a ton of depth and Smith playing worse than last year, theres not much appeal to holding him in fantasy.