Michigan (6-5) is contending with the inevitable after-effects from their iconic 2023 National Championship run, as their 76th ranked SP+ offense has dramatically reduced their ability to keep pace with the newly expanded Big Ten. UM went 4-2 through the first half of the schedule, but then dropped 3-of-4 to @Illinois (21-7), Oregon (38-17) and @Indiana (20-15) before scorching Northwestern 50-6. The Wolverines have finally settled on former walk-on QB Davis Warren who emerged from an early-season three-QB rotation to win the job. Michigan ranks second-to-last nationally (134th) in passing explosiveness and play at the 118th slowest pace in the country. Their run defense is top-flight, while UMs secondary ranks 26th in pass explosiveness but is allowing a 61.4% (79th) and is a few notches down from their dominant 2023 version.
Ohio State (10-1) is defeating opponents by an average scoring margin of 27 points (#2 in FBS) while ranking Top 10 on each side of the ball in 3-and-out rate, EPA/play and points per scoring opportunity. The main area of weakness on offense is the Ohio State O-lines ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 96th with a 10.6% blitz down sack rate and 72nd in overall sacks per pressure (20%). Defensively OSU is superb, ranking 1st in FBS according to SP+. The Buckeyes are facing the sixth-fewest number of deep passes in the country, with just 9.8% of passes defended coming 20+ yards downfield. They are allowing a somewhat elevated 60.3% completion rate, which ranks 61st nationally. Outside of a thrilling 32-31 loss to Oregon in Autzen Stadium, Ohio State has been flawless and staked their claim to a CFP Playoff appearance with a commanding 38-15 victory over Indiana in Week 13.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!
Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? Weve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you wont miss any of the action!
The latest odds courtesy of BetMGM:
The look-ahead line for this game was at Ohio State -10 preseason, but now were at -20/20.5 across the board in early trading. The most favorable current moneyline odds are OSU -1428 and Michigan +1100, but Ohio State is sitting in the -2000 range on average. This game total briefly opened at 47.5 but is now available between 42.5 and 44.5.
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks: Ohio State just hung 38 points on Indiana and has scored at least 31 points in all but two of their 11 games this season. With Ohio State chomping at the bit to avenge their current Michigan losing streak, and the Wolverines being a shell of their 2023 selves, I am taking the Buckeyes to score 31.5 points against the Wolverines.
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
Betting trends and stats for Michigan at Ohio State
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
Highest Ticket%
Highest Handle%
Biggest Liabilities
College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff: