We’re heading into Week 12 of the NFL season which means the fantasy football playoffs are inching closer. You may already have a spot locked up or perhaps you need to win the rest of your matchups to get in but regardless, we’re now firmly at the time of year where you need to be planning weeks in advance, which includes having your defenses set to go.
To help with that, I’ve created a Playoff Score to rank all the defenses for Weeks 13-17. I took my standard BOD Formula (pasted below) which I use to calculate the most trustworthy fantasy defenses and then I input each team’s opponents for the five weeks starting with Week 13 (dividing by games played so the teams with bye weeks aren’t hurt in their overall score). I then took that number and added it to each defense’s average fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, multiplied by 1.5 to give it a little extra weight. That means the Playoff Score takes into account each team’s success over the past six weeks plus their upcoming schedule.
Since I use recent fantasy points scored per game and also use an offense’s points allowed to opposing defenses as part of this formula, that means that these rankings will likely change incrementally week after week as teams change their overall performance and offensive rankings change which impacts the ease of the matchup. As a result, my advice for how to best use this article is to get a sense of which teams are set up best for playoff success but use the color-coded chart below to try and find two defenses that you can put on your roster to rotate matchups and avoid having to start any defenses in a subpar matchup.
The matchups highlighted in green are the 10 easiest matchups for fantasy defenses, according to performance over the last month (teams ranked 32nd to 23rd) and the matchups highlighted in red are the 10 hardest matchups (10th to 1st, obviously). You’ll see some additional comments below that help to clarify some of those rankings.
BOD Formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
Before we dive into the rankings, there are a couple of quick notes about how each team is ranked as an opponent that you need to know.
These are three of the six highest-scoring defenses over the last six weeks of the season, and they are my three highest-ranking defenses in my BOD rankings, which, as I mentioned above, have been updated to reflect performance over the last six weeks. As a result, these feel like three of the safest defenses that you can have in fantasy football right now. You may want to pair them with another defense for the weeks where they’re facing an opponent marked in red above, but I wouldn’t drop any of them and I’d start them in any matchup that isn’t red.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
This tier features the majority of the rest of my top 10 BOD defenses, which is why they continue to be ranked high despite some tough matchups mixed in for the remainder of the season.
The only defense out of the group that I could see dropping would be the Rams. The Rams have been the highest-scoring defense in fantasy football over the last six weeks, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game, so it feels weird suggesting dropping them, but their schedule is downright brutal. I’ve tried to target the Saints with opposing defenses since they lost both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but it has been a terrible play. I could still see playing the Rams against them because the Rams have performed so well, but it’s a bit of a risky matchup. I also can see playing the Rams against the Jets, but those three matchups in red should be avoided if at all possible, so maybe you hold onto the Rams but be sure to pair them with the right defense (suggestions below).
The Colts are the only defense not on the top ten fringe that featured in this tier and you can see why if you look at the color coding of the chart. You will have to maneuver around a Week 14 bye and potentially around a Week 15 showdown with the resurgent Broncos; however, the other three matchups are strong and those final two matchups could win you your league.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
We’re now getting outside of the most consistently solid defenses except for Chicago, who are one of the last remaining top-ten defenses for me. However, Chicago has three brutal games ahead of them that I can’t see playing them for. You could keep Chicago on your roster by pairing them with the right defense, and I’ll go over some options below, but you need to handle them strategically.
The Bengals have a tremendous schedule the rest of the way with no truly bad matchups. However, the Bengals have not been a strong defense this season and rank 18th in my BOD rankings over the last six weeks. I’d feel more comfortable with using the Bengals as a supporting defense to one of the truly strong defenses we’ve seen throughout the year.
The Bills have potentially solid matchups in Week 16 and 17, so they may rise in these rankings in the coming weeks, but those first three matchups are brutal. The Bills also have a stranglehold on the AFC East, so we don’t know what motivation they’ll have for those games. It’s likely that they’ll still be playing for seeding but something to keep in mind.
The Bucs, Seahawks, and Cardinals jump out as having strong schedules the rest of the way. Each only has one game that I’d truly want to avoid; however, all three of them have underperformed so far this year, so it’s hard to rely on them as your primary defense for the postseason. I like having them as an option to pair with defenses that are in my first two tiers though.
POSSIBLE PAIRINGS
The 49ers are my last remaining top-ten defense, but what a brutal schedule that is. We usually trust the 49ers defense against most opponents, but it’s hard to see using them week in and week out for the remainder of the season. They could make for a great one-week pairing with any of the top defenses from the tiers above, but I can’t rest my playoff hopes on the 49ers.
I can’t see using any of these defenses for the fantasy playoffs.