With most leagues already having their trade deadline in the rearview mirror, this is the final week of the Fantasy Football Trade Desk. I appreciate you joining me this season for the first year of the column. I’m hoping to run it back again next year, so feel free to reach out on Twitter and Blue Sky to give me any feedback or thoughts on what you’d like to see from the article moving forward.
Each week in this column I’ll guide you through some of my recommendations on which players we should be looking to target in fantasy football trades, which players we should be testing the waters on, and which players we should be holding onto. We’ll try to go beyond just the box score and evaluate role, usage, and matchups in a way that can help us identify the perfect time to move on from a well-performing player or take a risk on an underperforming one.
As a quick overall citation, all of my data for routes, target share, and other advanced metrics comes from Dwain McFarlands Utilization Report over at Fantasy Life, so make sure you go check that out.
At the end of the day, we have one goal: to maximize the value of our players and get the best weekly returns on our fantasy lineup. Some of the calls may be risky. Some may be easy, but I’ll try to give you a wide range and a sense of value to help you navigate trade scenarios in your league. This leads to the final reminder that this is a trade column, so I won’t be discussing guys who are predominantly on waiver wires, but you can check out our awesome waiver wire articles for all of those potential names.
Dont miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As many of us know, “Buying the Dip” is when an investor buys an asset after its price has fallen in a way they believe to be temporary. That allows us to profit when the price rebounds, so all players listed here are players who I believe suffered a value dip in Week 1 that I feel confident will rebound in the coming weeks.
Kyren Williams – RB, Los Angeles RamsIt might be hard to trade for Williams, but he also hasn’t been that good for fantasy over the last three weeks, averaging just 9.1 points per game in half-PPR formats, which has made him RB31 over those three weeks. That performance dip has coincided with the return of both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, which has some fantasy managers on Twitter worried that the Rams’ offensive identity is shifting. On top of that, we’ve seen Blake Corum start to get more carries, so the fantasy manager in your league might no longer think Williams is a locked-in RB1. Still, over that same three-week sample where Williams has struggled, he has a 92% snap share, 65% route participation rate, and has handled 77% of the team’s rushes. That’s still an elite role, and I still trust him as an RB1, so I’d be looking to float some offers if his manager starts to get a bit worried.
Courtland Sutton – WR, Denver BroncosI’m not sure if this is a dip, but Sutton had just 11.5 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring this past weekend, and I just wanted to talk about why I think you should be trying to get him on your team if you can. Since Week 5, Bo Nix has taken off and ranks 5th in fantasy points per game. Over the same span, Sutton has an 89% route participation rate with a 24% target share and 36% of the team’s air yards. However, he also has an 80% catchable target rate over that span compared to a 51% mark in weeks 1-4. That’s a massive improvement. With Sutton seeing so much work and seeing so many more valuable targets, I think he’s a WR2 that people aren’t treating as one because there is still so much negative sentiment around Nix.
Amari Cooper – WR, Buffalo BillsI had Cooper in this exact section a week ago and mentioned that I thought he would be a great add for after the Bills’ bye week. In a surprising turn of events, Cooper played against the Chiefs despite dealing with a wrist injury that forced him to wear a cast. While he only ran a route on 53% of the dropbacks for Buffalo, he made two crucial catches which showed just how significant of an asset he could be when he’s healthy. He has the bye week to rest up and heal and has yet to have a huge game since coming to the Bills, but I fully expect him to be playing a full-time role in this offense starting in Week 13, and that makes him a WR2 in my eyes through the fantasy playoffs.
Cedric Tillman – WR, Cleveland BrownsThe Browns lost outright to the Saints on Sunday, and Jerry Jeudy had a huge breakout game, so there may be fantasy managers who think Tillman was a flash in the pan. After all, he was not rostered in many leagues before exploding onto the scene in Jameis Winston’s first start, and players like that tend to get cut quickly after their first bad game. However, I’m still buying on Tillman. Over the last four weeks, he’s second on the team with a 92% route participation rate and first on the team with a 22% target share and 31% of the team’s air yards. He had an 18% target share on Sunday, so while that’s a dip from his previous marks, it’s not a significant one. In fact, Jerry Jeudy, who had a huge game on Sunday, saw a lower target share than he’s used to as well; he just hit on a few big plays. Tillman’s role hasn’t changed, so I don’t expect his fantasy performance to either, as long as Jameis Winston remains under center.
At the beginning of this article, I talked about how our goal is to maximize the value we get out of the players on our team. Sometimes that means buying low, as we discussed above, and sometimes it means buying at a perceived high point on a player with questionable long-term value. If we believe there is some validity to the spike in value, we can acquire a player in a deal, try to reap the rewards of his good performances, and then still sell before the risk comes through but just sell at a higher price. This is different than just buying high because these players will have some risk and likely be ones you want to try and trade away later, so its a delicate balancing act.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – WR, Seattle SeahawksI’m gonna take the “L” on this one. I didn’t think Njigba was going to be a thing this season with Seattle running it back with all three receivers and seemingly wanting to use JSN in more of a short-passing game role. However, Tyler Lockett’s ineffectiveness and DK Metcalf’s injury have opened up more opportunities for the second-year receiver. Yes, in the two weeks that Metcalf was out, JSN was being used down the field more often with an average depth of target near 14 yards. It was down to 8.4 yards this past weekend. However, the target share he commanded in those two games stayed, and he had a 35% target share on a 92% route participation rate in Week 11 even with Metcalf back. There may be fantasy managers who think Metcalf is still shaking off the rust and that JSN will go back to his more limited role, but I think the Seahawks are starting to see that they need to cut back on Lockett’s usage, and JSN is the true WR2 in this offense now, so I’m still buying him as a fantasy WR2 if you can get him for a good price.
Jonnu Smith – TE, Miami Dolphins It’s usually not advised to buy a player after a career game, but I’m still not sure people truly know just how big of a role in Miami’s offense Smith is playing. Everybody seems to expect Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle to go back to dominating the touches in the receiving game, but I don’t think that’s happening. Since Tua Tagovailoa has come back, Smith has averaged a 76% route participation rate and a 19% target share, which is tied for second on the team with De’Von Achane and only just behind Hill’s 21% mark. The team is scheming up ways to use Smith’s athleticism, and he’s their most physical receiver, which makes him a valuable red zone target. With this type of usage on this offense, Smith is a TE1 the rest of the way.
Dont miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
If you’re going to Run a Process on a player, then we’re going to explore a potential sale while not being locked into selling. This is essentially for players who we think will still perform at a solid clip this season but not at the rate that they currently are or not at the same rate that their current value suggests they will.
D’Andre Swift – RB, Chicago BearsThe Bears had their first game with new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the new simplified offense didn’t impact the wide receivers as much as we expected, but it did impact D’Andre Swift. Chicago’s new scheme relied on short, quick passes, and Williams averaged just 2.42 seconds to throw the ball. However, with those quick passes designed to wide receivers, there were even fewer targets to go around for Swift, who has not seen a target share over 6% in three of his last four games. What’s more concerning is that Brown also got Roschon Johnson on the field more. Swift handled just 58% of the total carries with Johnson taking 34%, which is more than double his previous high this season. Johnson also got 67% of the carries inside the five-yard line and played on 100% of the two-minute drill snaps and 82% of the long down-and-distance snaps. So Swift is splitting carries, he’s not the goalline back, and he’s not getting as much work in the passing game. It’s only one game with a new offensive coordinator, but it might be a good idea to see if you can sell Swift now on the chance this carries over for the remainder of the season.
T.J. Hockenson – TE, Minnesota Vikings I had to cover the Vikings for Rotoworld blurbs this week, so I watched every snap of the game and often found myself asking,” Is Hockenson playing?” The answer is that he was but not much. He ran a route on just 57% of dropbacks and was largely put on the back burner in the fourth quarter with Josh Oliver seeing most of the work. Now, the Vikings were up double digits at that point, but that’s where my concern comes in. Hockenson is coming off a major injury, and the Vikings are sitting pretty at 8-2. They don’t need to force him onto the field in games where they’re up comfortably when he’s still working back into game shape because they’d much prefer he is healthy and clicking for the playoffs. His 16% target share through three games is not high enough to maintain value if we can’t count on his playing time to remain consistently high. As a result, I think Hockenson is on the TE1/TE2 fringe and if you have another solid option on your team, like Jonnu Smith, it might not hurt to see what Hockenson’s name value can get you in a trade.
Jayden Reed – WR, Green Bay PackersI don’t WANT to trade Reed, but I have some concerns about his role going forward, which is why he’s in this section where we can see what the market is for him and if we can get good value in return. Since Week 7, which is not coincidentally Christian Watson’s second game after returning from a hamstring injury, Reed has seen his role change. In those four games, he’s run a route on 74% of dropbacks, which is second on the team, but he’s seen just a 14% target share and 17% of the team’s air yards. Those last two stats rank both rank third among Packers’ wide receivers. Reed is coming off a game where a touchdown saved his fantasy day again, but he remains firmly in the middle of a four-receiver rotation in Green Bay and not getting the big-play chances down the field, which makes his ceiling feel a bit less reliable than we thought it was a few weeks ago.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – WR, New Orleans SaintsLook, I think most people know these last two weeks have been flukey for MVS, but bye weeks and poor receiver performance have made some people desperate, so you may find a trade partner who wants to chase his upside. Please let them do that. MVS did run a route on 87% of dropbacks this past weekend, which is good, but he had just a 14% target share and was at 15% last week, so he’s not getting lots of targets and is making all of his hay on one or two big plays a game, even though he’s ostensibly the team’s WR1. That’s the definition of a boom-or-bust player.
When we buy a call on somebody, we are essentially buying the option on a player we think might hit big in the future. In finance (as I’ve learned from research) this means the buyer isn’t locked into purchasing the stock but has the option to do so at a lower price – a strike price – if they choose to do so in the future. For us, this means players who we want to add to our roster now in a small trade because we believe there’s a chance they are going to hit big for us later. We don’t want to pay a lot, but we want them around for the option to use them if it all breaks right.
Cole Kmet – TE, Chicago BearsAnother impact of Thomas Brown now calling the shots in Chicago is that Cole Kmet ran a route on 87% of the Bears’ dropbacks. He had gone over 80% just one other time this season, so that’s an important development. To add to that, Gerald Everett ran a route on just 3% of snaps, which is far and away his lowest mark of the season, so there is clearly no longer any committee at the tight end position in Chicago. With the Bears switching to more of a quick passing game, that could mean more spike TE1 weeks for Kmet.
Kayshon Boutte – WR, New England PatriotsThis is more for deeper leagues since Boutte didn’t do anything on Sunday; yet, he did run a route on 98% of the Patriots’ dropbacks. 98%!!! You rarely ever see that. I don’t think Boutte is an elite talent, but Drake Maye has been playing good football, and the Patriots will continue to need to throw the ball while playing from behind, so if Boutte is going to be on the field that often, that’s going to lead to fantasy success at some point.
Mike Williams – WR, Pittsburgh SteelersTwo weeks ago, in his first game with the Steelers, Mike Williams caught a game-winning touchdown. In Week 11, he didn’t see a single target. So why are we buying him? Well, in Week 10 he ran a route on 21% of dropbacks, but that rose to 36% in Week 11 while Van Jefferson’s route participation rate dropped to 54%. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see those numbers flip in Week 12 with Williams taking over the second boundary receiver position across from George Pickens. The Steelers weren’t able to get anything going against the Ravens this week, but as Williams’ role continues to grow, we could see him become far more of a factor in this offense, and the Steelers’ rest of season schedule for wide receivers is really favorable.