It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be if at all.
Samuel Sr. was supposed to see a spike in production with Brandon Aiyuk out, but hes been the WR47 in fantasy points per game over four games since BA went down. Its possible the lingering effects of pneumonia have contributed to Samuels disappointing box scores, but he has fantasy managers panicking either way. Samuel has -20% fantasy points over expected this season and remained quiet last week even with George Kittle also out. Hes taken a backseat to Jauan Jennings; Samuel has a 23.9% first-read target share over the last two weeks compared to 41.3% for Jennings.
Brock Purdy is now dealing with a sore shoulder, adding another concern. Moreover, Samuel is less likely to get carries in the red zone with Christian McCaffrey back in action. Samuel will likely have spike weeks, but the explosive plays havent been there, and Jennings has emerged as San Franciscos clear No. 1 WR.
Samuel hasnt seen more than seven targets in a game since Week 2, and hes finished as a top-10 WR just once this season. Samuel is still the WR15 in this weeks expert consensus ranks, but his fantasy managers are likely losing hope.
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Daniels averaged 10.5 rush attempts, 53.7 rush yards and 0.7 rush TDs over six games before suffering a rib injury. Hes averaged 6.5 rush attempts, 27.5 rush yards and 0 rush TDs over four games since. However, Daniels opponents have featured three defenses ranked top four in QB fantasy points allowed over that span, including arguably the leagues hottest defense last week. Those defenses have also limited QB rushing, and Dan Quinn has insisted Daniels isnt playing injured.
Daniels schedule looks much more favorable moving forward, so his recent slump (hes been the QB21 in ppg over the last four weeks since the injury) may present an opportunity to buy low if your leagues trade deadline hasnt passed.
Nabers has been the WR40 in fantasy points per game since returning from a concussion in Week 7. He already has the second most unrealized air yards (596) in the league, and now the Giants are turning to Tommy DeVito at quarterback. While Daniel Jones has been a problem, the move was financially motivated (possibly as well as the decision to bypass Drew Lock), so theres concern Nabers situation has gotten even worse.
DeVito’s 6.2 YPA is close enough to Jones’ 6.5, but New Yorks new QB owns a 17.2% sack rate and a lower aDOT. DeVito averaged only 172 passing yards and 0.9 TDs in five games where he played at least 80% of the snaps last year, but Jones averaged just 191 passing yards without Nabers last season, so maybe the downgrade wont be significant.
Nabers hasnt seen a single red-zone target since Week 4, so theres an argument things cant possibly get worse. Nabers ranks first in ESPNs Open Score by a mile; his grade is 99, and the second best is 89. Moreover, the Giants go from having the leagues 12th-toughest WR schedule so far to having the second-easiest rest of season.
Fantasy managers have the right to be concerned, but regression, Nabers immense talent and a highly favorable schedule can still lead to top-15 WR production down the stretch.
Chubb got 4.5 YPC last week but saw a season-low 11 opportunities in a favorable matchup coming out of Clevelands bye. A short turnaround with an upcoming Thursday night game was given as a reason, but Jerome Ford ran more routes and out-snapped Chubb, 41 to 22. Chubbs 61% rush share was a season low, and the score was 14-14 entering the fourth quarter, so game script wasnt a major issue. Chubbs snap share fell to 19% after the first quarter.
Clevelands offensive line has been a problem, and the Browns have one of the leagues highest pass rates over expectation since Jameis Winston took over. Chubb hasnt looked the same (3.1 YPC) since returning from another serious knee surgery, and he has just two receptions over four games. The Browns have the fourth-toughest RB schedule rest of season, so Chubb looks unlikely to make the impact fantasy managers had hoped.
Swifts snap share (54%), route share (38%) and opportunity share (59%) all dropped during Chicagos first game with new OC Thomas Brown last week. Swift recorded a 39-yard touchdown run, but Johnson took over the two-minute and goal-line roles. Johnson saw four opportunities in the red zone compared to one for Swift, including both goal-line attempts. Johnson recorded season highs in snap share (44%) and rush share (34%).
The offensive coordinator switch wasnt all bad news for Swift; Chicago limited its sacks taken, Swift saw more outside carries and the Bears had by far the leagues lowest neutral pass rate (45%). However, Swifts schedule goes from the second easiest up until now to the second-toughest rest of season.
Swift has looked rejuvenated this season, but Caleb Williams struggles have held back his production. Fantasy managers now have another concern with Johnsons increased role.