Ohio State (9-1) is defeating opponents by an average scoring margin of 28 points (#2 in FBS) while ranking top-10 on each side of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and points per scoring opportunity. The primary area of weakness on offense is the Ohio State O-lines ability to handle extra rushers, as they rank 91st with a 10.7% blitz down sack rate and 78th with a 7.2% big play rate on blitz downs. Defensively OSU is superb, ranking 1st nationally according to SP+. The Buckeyes are facing the third-fewest number of deep passes in the country, with just 8.2% of passes defended occurring 20+ yards downfield. They are allowing a somewhat elevated 61.8% completion rate, which ranks 78th nationally. Ohio State emerged 2-1 from a challenging three game mid-season slate against @Oregon (32-31 L), Nebraska (21-17 W) and @Penn State (20-13), in addition to dominating Northwestern on Saturday. They close the season with two extremely consequential home games against Indiana (90) and Michigan (5-4).
Indiana has taken the nation by storm in HC Curt Cignettis first season at the HC of IU program, sitting at a perfect 7-0 heading into their titanic Week 10 showdown against The Buckeyes. The Hoosiers rattled off four straight easy wins to start the year before toppling Maryland 42-28. They went on another four-game Big Ten win streak before grinding out a taxing 20-to-15 win over Michigan where Indiana carried a 97% win expectancy despite the close score. Indianas offense has been one of the most potent units in the country, ranking second in success rate (55.5%) and 4th in EPA/Play. While Indianas 40.2 PPG offense gets a lot of attention, their 15th ranked SP+ defense also ranks 4th in EPA/play and 6th in suppressing explosive plays.
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· Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024· Time: 12:00 PM EST· Site: Ohio Stadium· City: Columbus, OH· TV/Streaming: FOX
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The latest odds courtesy of BetMGM:
This line opened at -11.5 in early trading but has edged closer to the key number of -10 and currently sits at -10.5 at most books. Indianas moneyline is ranging between +320 and +365, while Ohio State is toggling between -420 and -500. We got an initial total of 55.5 points, with the line down to 54.5 in most places.
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:Ohio State had a recent three game stretch against @Oregon, Nebraska and @Penn State where each contest was decided by 7 or less points. The Buckeyes are an even 5-5 ATS, while the undefeated Hoosiers are 8-2. Im taking Indiana and the +10.5 points early in the week since I think the margin closes to -8.5 or less by kickoff.
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