Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the leagues biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last week: Is home-court advantage in the NBA’s regular season dead?]
Last week, when we tackled the impact of increased 3-point shooting on home-court advantage, I reached out to Ryan Bernardoni (a.k.a. Dan Gercart ), who has been preaching 3-point shooting as a more accurate indicator of who will win a game, and we got into a side conversation: If the team that makes more 3s wins two-thirds of the time, shouldn’t the NBA embrace more 3-point specialists?
Take Milwaukee Bucks wing AJ Green, for example. He is an undrafted free agent out of Northern Iowa, where he shot 38% on seven 3-point attempts per game over four seasons. He had been in Milwaukee’s system the last two years, playing on the periphery of the rotation, shooting 41% from distance on 11 attempts per 36 minutes, when the Bucks have outscored opponents by 1.2 points per 100 possessions.
Yet, to start this season, he was outside the rotation, even receiving a “DNP-coach’s decision” in the campaign’s sixth game, as Milwaukee started 1-5. Playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks head coach Doc Rivers fielded Green for a team-high 34 minutes off the bench. Green finished 7-of-9 from 3 and +5 in a game his team lost by two to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the league’s last unbeaten team.
Green has been a mainstay of the rotation ever since, and Milwaukee has won three of its last five games, beating opponents by 2.5 points per 100 possessions in the sharpshooter’s limited minutes off the bench.
Now, 1.2 points per 100 possessions might not sound like much, but over a full season it is the baseline for a playoff team. And for a bench unit, it is even better. If the Bucks can sustain leads for 20 minutes a night with a guy who is making less than 2% of the salary cap, why aren’t more teams doing this?
You saw it in Boston, where the Celtics spent two seasons incorporating Sam Hauser into the rotation, unleashing him for 22 minutes a night last season, when the Celtics outscored opponents by a team-best 14.2 points per 100 possessions in his minutes. Another undrafted four-year college product, Hauser has never shot below 40% from 3 at any level (though he is shooting 33% in the early going this season).
Isaiah Joe is another one. The second-round pick spent two seasons in Philadelphia, where Rivers rarely played him, even as the 76ers outscored opponents by 1.3 points per 100 possessions in his minutes. This was a guy who shot 38% on nine 3-point attempts per game in two seasons at Arkansas. The Oklahoma City Thunder picked Joe up off waivers in 2022 and immediately committed to playing him. Over the past three seasons, the Thunder have outscored opponents by 6.7 points per 100 possessions in Joe’s minutes.
Defense has been the concern for flamethrowers. Will they be forced into action, switched onto some of the best ball-handlers in the world? They will, but anyone who watched Hauser en route to the title last season can tell you he withstood the attacks better than we expected. His size (6-foot-8) certainly helps.
The data tells us that a marksman’s 3-point shooting the makes, plus the spacing they generate outweighs any defensive deficiencies. Our search yielded 48 players over the past five seasons who: a) were drafted outside the top 20; b) make less than 2% of the salary cap; c) cracked a rotation; d) took five 3-pointers per 100 possessions; and e) made 40% of them. They outscored opponents by an average of 1.5 points per 100 possessions off the bench and played for teams that won an average of 48 games.
The question then: Do great shooters make great teams, or do great teams make great shooters? After all, teams loaded with high-priced talent are more likely to require a cheap shooter to fill out a rotation, and a cheap shooter is more likely to succeed in that rotation when surrounded by high-priced talent. It is a question that may not have a definitive answer and does not really need one, for if a great team can not only tread water but breathe easier with one of these players on the court, that is all that matters.
Perception is why many sharpshooters never get a fair shot. Pull him for his first defensive miscue, and he never gets into a rhythm. Coaches may not consider that the math inevitably bends toward winning. But they should. Play a hired gun 15-20 minutes a night, so he can fire a handful of 3s, knock a couple down and tilt the tally in your favor, because, again, the team that makes more 3s wins 67% of the time.
Duncan Robinson was one of these guys. The undrafted free agent shot 45% on eight 3-point attempts per game in his second season, helping the Miami Heat to the 2020 NBA Finals. He signed a five-year, $90 million deal in 2021, and his value suffered. That playoff net rating (1.2 points per 100 possessions!) was not worth as much when it prevented the Heat from paying for more difficult to find contributions.
The Celtics and Thunder paid Hauser and Joe half of what the Heat handed Robinson. We will see if they meet that value or if they are the first to go once hefty luxury-tax bills come due for two of the league’s best teams. Boston essentially drafted its Hauser replacement, selecting Baylor Scheierman, who shot 39% on six 3-point attempts per game in five collegiate seasons, with the final pick of the first round.
And that is the thing: These guys are not all that hard to find. Last season alone the NCAA produced 23 players 6-foot-6 or taller who shot better than 40% on five or more 3-point attempts per game. One of them, Jaylen Wells, was taken in the second round by the beleaguered Memphis Grizzlies, who are giving him 26 minutes a night, and he is rewarding them with a pair of 3-pointers per game on 37% shooting.
Another six G League regulars are 6-7 or taller and shot better than 40% last season on eight or more 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. Matt Ryan is shooting 40% on 9.4 3-point attempts per game over three G League seasons. It is why he continues to get calls from the NBA, including last week’s from the New York Knicks, only none of his previous teams have committed to playing him 15 minutes per game.
Ryan came closest last season, averaging 13.9 minutes per game for the New Orleans Pelicans. He shot 45% on 8.4 3-point attempts per 36 minutes, and when he was on the court they outscored opponents by … 1.4 points per 100 possessions. Will Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau, notorious for sticking to his guns, play his newfound sharpshooter enough to bend the math even further in his eighth-rated bench’s favor?
Because the math says it works. As much as you might not want another player who shoots a ton of 3s and plays half the defense, it has worked in theory and practice. Maybe not for everyone but on average over time. You may not be able to find a rangy 3-and-D wing for less than $3 million, but you can find a rangy Enough-3s-That-The-Defense-Is-Passable wing and probably develop a replacement behind him.
Determination: Fact. The NBA needs more 3-point specialists.