To say the Washington Commanders have exceeded expectations in 2024 is a wild understatement.
At 7-3, theyve already blown past their preseason betting total of 6.5 wins with seven games to spare. Retread head coach Dan Quinn, at one point seeming more like a consolation prize in the Ben Johnson sweepstakes than a preferred hire, has brought his infectious energy and attitude, and shifted the mindset of an entire organization. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who was last seen in the NFL ejecting out of Phoenix and from a listless Cardinals team and needing such a life reset he took a trip to Thailand, has turned a unit led by a rookie QB, a frustratingly underutilized wide receiver and a smattering of glue guys and role players into one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Commanders are second in offensive DVOA, success rate, and EPA per play, just like we all expected.
That rookie QB, Jayden Daniels, was thrown into the deep waters of a Todd Bowles defense in Week 1, and after his initial struggles, has found a way to keep his head above water and swim no matter where the currents are going.
Despite a Week 10 loss, it has all come together for the Commanders in a quicker and more cohesive way than even the most optimistic Commanders fan or organization member could have fathomed. With a juicy Thursday Night Football matchup on tap between the Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles, I wanted to look at exactly why this Commanders offense and Daniels have been not only a pleasant surprise, but an actually good unit that has given defenses fits. And I’ll examine at how that might look against an Eagles defense that has been morphing into a top-end unit in their own right.
While the Air Raid tag is going to follow any Kingsbury-led offense, this Commanders offense is more of a hybridization of different types of offenses with some Air Raid sauce slathered on top. Its a fast-paced attack that operates in no huddle with regularity, with 61.3% of the Commanders’ offensive snaps this year outside the last two minutes of each half coming without a huddle. This is easily the highest rate in the NFL this year and dwarfs the league average of 12.2%. In fact, 61.3% would be the third-highest rate by any NFL offense since 2002, according to TruMedia. Only the Chip Kelly-led Eagles blur offenses in 2013 and 2015 had a higher rate of not huddling (the 2014 Eagles appropriately ranked fourth).
While some offenses will have a limited menu of what they can get to out of no huddle, the Commanders seem to be able to access a large swath of their playbook when they crank up the tempo. Theres formational variety, run-game adjustments and different parts of the passing game that theyve been able to dial up while defenses are scrambling to get lined up.
Take this opening drive against the Cardinals from Week 4. The Commanders finished this touchdown drive with four different types of run concepts from different formation families, including a snap out of Wildcat with Brian Robinson as the de facto QB.
Getting on the ball quickly can create a natural element of surprise and limit what a defense can access. Teams are scared to substitute their personnel because they might get caught with too many players on the field or a player out of position. This can lead to defenses playing incorrect personnel groupings for certain situations (like a blitz package used on third down now having to play a first-and-10 situation on the next play).
Defensive play-calls also become shorter and more basic. Its hard for defenses to get into wordier calls (general rule of thumb is that the more exotic the look, the more words are needed) and communicate them correctly with the defenders attempting to get lined up, all while the offense is lined up and ready to snap the ball. This leads to a natural limitation of what can get thrown at the QB and offensive line, which narrows the problems they have to potentially solve.
Being able to get to more while limiting what you have to face is an amazing edge for any unit to have. Its buoyed even further by Daniels and the rest of the Commanders’ offense avoiding self-inflicted wounds that could kneecap warp-speed attack.
Only 3.1% of Commanders drives have resulted in a turnover this year, second-best in the NFL and well below the league average of 10.9%. The ball carriers are taking care of the ball and Daniels has done a great job of not putting the ball in harms way while also avoiding sacks that could cripple a drive (his sack rate of 7.1% is around the middle of the pack for qualifying QBs).
That sack rate and the run game speak to the play of the Commanders’ offensive line, a unit that has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the entire NFL this year. Even in Arizona, Kingsbury was willing to go to the run game, which was an efficient and for the most part an underrated aspect of his offenses. In Washington, with offensive line coach Bobby Johnson, the team has added even more layers despite dealing with recent injuries up front.
The Commanders are first in the NFL in RB rushing success rate (48.4%) and EPA generated by RB carries (22.7 expected points and .11 per carry). Thats not including the rushing element that Daniels brings, although the way defenses are accounting for him opens up opportunities to exploit.
There isnt much straight dropping back in this Air Raid offense. Instead, the Commanders are slicing defenses up on the ground with Robinson (now back from injury) and a rejuvenated Austin Ekeler, while also sprinkling in some play-action shot plays (sometimes out of no huddle) to attack down the field. The Commanders call a run or play-action play on 65.2% of their offensive plays, the fourth-highest rate in the league. In 2022, Kingsburys last year in Arizona, the Cardinals called a run or play-action pass on 50.8% of their plays. The Commanders’ run rate of 50.5% (fifth-highest in the NFL) is in a different zip code than the 2019-2022 Cardinals’ run rate of 41.5% (including 37.9% in Kingsburys final season in Arizona).
There have been new conceptual elements added to the run game, but there are also changes that Kingsbury has made to his attack. There are more personnel variations, including more tight end and two-RB looks. Their formations have also become more diverse and have become more condensed. Kingsburys Cardinals had average formational width of 28.3 yards in 2021, widest in the NFL that season, which often made those Cardinals offenses feel like every skill player was isolated on an island. While this years Commanders have an average formational width of 24.4 yards, which is tied for 10th in 2024, the Commanders will also use formational window dressing to open up their offense even more. They lead the NFL in things like quad formations (an atypical formation set with four skill players aligned to one side and a single player on the other side).
Theres also plenty of screens, especially to WRs, in this offense. That is a staple of an Air Raid offense, with the thinking that these quick-hitters are, in theory, a way to replace the run game to make defenders honor all levels of the field. Of the Commanders’ targets this season, 11.8% have been to WR screens, according to NextGenStats, highest in the NFL and third-highest by any offense since 2016 (only behind the 2022 Bears and, appropriately enough, the 2019 Cardinals in Kingsburys first season as a head coach).
These are not white flag plays for the Commanders to give up on a series like they are in other offenses. Washington currently has a 50% success rate on WR screens, which coupled with its success on the ground, leads to a healthy dose of efficiency. I attribute a chunk of the Commanders’ success on these screens, and even in the run game, to their skill position personnel. It’s not that its filled with a bunch of YAC monsters who can turn any play into a home run, but more so that their WR room is filled with an assortment of players willing to scrap as blockers and who can hold up physically. Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus are all players who I would rate as plus-blockers, with most of them having at least above-average size, too. This is a stark, stark contrast to the final years of Kingsburys Cardinals that featured a starting WR group at one point with listed heights and weights of:
Now to the rookie triggerman who’s making this all go. When the Commanders do drop back to throw, its all plays that Daniels is comfortable with. That includes concepts featuring isolated routes on the outside (hes fantastic with his throw placement on stop routes and hitches) that let him take advantage of any matchup he likes (which is apparently McLaurin vs. everybody).
Daniels, even as a prospect, had a propensity to attack the outside. And hes very good at it. So far as a professional, hes even been sprinkling in tough intermediate throws over the middle every week. Attacking that part of the field still isnt a heavy part of Daniels throwing diet, but he keeps excelling on the opportunities he takes, which will help keep defenders from starting to squeeze things to the outside.
Daniels doesnt attack downfield a ton outside of the occasional go ball to keep defenders from squatting on the outside; only 14.6% of his throws have been to routes defined as vertical by NextGenStats, which ranks 25th in the NFL. But hes been hitting enough of them, and he takes sound chances so it keeps defenses from playing too aggressively downhill (remember that run game and all those WR screens). And Kingsbury does a great job of timing up double-moves to take advantage of cornerbacks who are not honoring getting beat over the top.
Daniels running ability has also been exceptional. He constantly eludes defenders as a runner and scrambler (he currently leads the NFL in scramble rate at 13.8%), picking up yards and first downs (Daniels is behind only the tush push-aided Jalen Hurts in rushing first downs among all QBs.)
While Ive already talked about how his running ability provides a boost to the rest of the Commanders’ ground game, Daniels’ scrambling ability has been huge on third down for Washington. The Commanders currently rank first in combined success rate and explosive play rate on third and fourth down this season. So, even when the Commanders havent been able to stay ahead of the sticks on early downs (they rank seventh in average distance to go on third down because of that efficient run and screen game on early downs), defenses still have to worry about Daniels peppering them underneath to set up a short fourth down, or firing a deep shot to McLaurin when they start looking to jump one of those shorter throws. Or Daniels can simply scamper by to move the chains, even in third-and-long situations.
Most importantly Daniels has been (mostly) avoiding big hits, something that has to be monitored given his college style and lack of bulk. Having said that, he has been dealing with a rib injury that knocked him out of the Commanders’ Week 7 game against the Carolina Panthers.
Daniels accuracy and speed are winning traits. The calmness he plays with is palpable when you watch the Commanders. Sure, he scrambles a ton, but it isnt frantic paths that look like they’re written in cursive. Instead, its direct and with a purpose. Daniels is fast, but he hasnt tempted fate by trying to do too much as a runner, or a thrower for that matter. The Commanders have had plenty of positive game scripts, but Daniels never seems like hes totally pressing.
My main question with this offense is how the Commanders expand as more film is put out there. The Steelers in Week 10 took the fight to the Commanders, as cornerback Joey Porter Jr. was constantly pressing the Commanders’ WRs, their edge defenders were sprinting at Daniels to force him to give the ball up on read plays, and they just generally tried to outmuscle the Commanders.
Its easier said than done, as the Commanders have found ways to move the ball and score even when things havent been ideal. And their up-tempo attack and team speed can turn one simple defensive lapse into a huge gain. Theres a reason they have stayed in the top five of efficiency metrics even as the season has gone along. I still would like to see the Commanders look to attack downfield more often, especially if teams snuff out their WR screens like the Steelers did (the Commanders rank 25th in explosive play rate on early downs, sandwiched between the Raiders’ and Bears’ lackluster offenses).
So far, teams have struggled to consistently take away Washington’s staples, especially early in games. Kingsbury has used enough designer plays and double-moves to create breathing room and added enough curveballs for defenses to deal with. But defenses start to clamp down on aspects of this offense as games go along and Kingsburys offenses have fallen off in the second half of seasons in the past, so I still want to see how this team evolves as defenses start hunkering down on the Commanders’ base plays. The tradeoff for some of the strength of their WRs is their after-catch ability is more middle of the pack, so underneath throws have a limited ceiling in this offense. So more chunk-seeking plays, like the Daniels throw against the Giants in the embedded tweet above, that arent just go balls will be a nice added element for this offense.
How Daniels deals with more consistent pressure will also be something Ill be keeping an eye on. So far, he has been much smarter when dealing with pressure than he was in college, which has helped keep the Commanders constantly ahead of the chains and allowed their efficient offense to thrive. But with more offensive line injuries, I am curious if the passing game is able to expand to more stuff downfield, or if its more of the same as a way to mitigate those injuries.
Another nitpick would be the Commanders’ inconsistent red-zone passing game. While it has showed more positive signs recently, it still is something that can hopefully improve for this team to feel even more dangerous.
Even if there is some drop-off on this Commanders offense, its baseline is way higher than I would have ever guessed going into the season. This is a testament to Kingsbury evolving his attack (with the influence of Johnson), the mature play of Daniels and the strong performances from the group of skill position players. This Thursday night tilt against the Eagles should be a fun game. The Eagles are second in combined success and explosive play rate, and have been one of the best defenses in the NFL since Week 3, with new and young faces being the drivers of that improvement. Players like cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are potential Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates, linebacker Zack Baun has been a revelation in Vic Fangios defense, defensive tackle Jalen Carter looks dominant in his second year, and even players like DT Milton Williams (in a contract year, I might add) looks like he leveled up this season.
Its a fantastic Thursday night matchup with two very good offenses going at it in a huge battle in the NFC East. While the Eagles’ offense has a clear advantage on that side of the ball, the Commanders’ offense will be getting a strong and entertaining (for neutral observers like me, at least) matchup against a strong Eagles defense.
The Eagles were expected to be battling at the top of the NFC and their offensive firepower has been worthy of eyeballs (for good and bad) for a few years now. Daniels and the Commanders’ offense, on the other hand, were not expected to be in this type of statistical stratosphere. But they have earned all the attention theyre getting right now.