A shot at history and a spot in the WNBA Finals are on the line Tuesday (ESPN2, 8 p.m. ET) when the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun play Game 5 of the semifinals.
The third-seeded Sun hope to win their first WNBA title, and the No. 2 seed Lynx seek to become the first franchise in the league to win five. While the top-seeded New York Liberty beat the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces on Sunday to advance to the Finals, Connecticut beat Minnesota that night to force this series to go the distance and return to the Target Center in Minneapolis.
That wasn’t a surprise. Most of their matchups have been close all season. Six of the seven games between the Lynx and the Sun were decided by single digits, one of those in overtime.
While the Lynx appear to have the edge — they tied with New York for the best home record in the league this season — the advantage hasn’t played out as expected in recent WNBA history. Visiting teams have won the past seven winner-take-all playoff games in the WNBA, the last three of which were by the Sun — including beating Minnesota in the clinching game of the first round last year.
The Sun’s DeWanna Bonner is especially experienced at winning elimination games on the road: Between her time with the Phoenix Mercury and Connecticut, she has won an WNBA-record 23 such games, according to ESPN Research.
Which team will survive and head to the Big Apple for Thursday’s Game 1 of the Finals? We look at some key factors in Tuesday’s game.
The MVP runner-up has had an excellent postseason, averaging 27.2 points and 9.3 rebounds in six playoff games. But in the Sun’s 92-82 victory in Game 4 on Sunday, Bonner had some success limiting Collier when the Sun most needed it.
In the first half, Alyssa Thomas was the final defender on Collier for 29 plays, according to ESPN Research. The Lynx were 12-of-22 for 33 points on those plays, with Collier going 5-for-5 against Thomas.
In the second half, the 6-foot-4 Bonner was the final defender on the 6-1 Collier on 21 plays. The Lynx were 5-of-13 for 14 points, with Collier going 2 of 3.
Collier still finished the game with 29 points. But slowing her down a little in the second half helped the Sun rally from a seven-point halftime deficit for the victory. The third quarter was particularly key, with the Sun outscoring the Lynx 25-13.
Admittedly, the Sun held Collier to nine points in Game 2 of this series — only the second game all season she didn’t score in double digits — and the Lynx still won 77-70. But if Connecticut can limit her Tuesday, that’s likely still the best road to success.
After an ankle injury forced Connecticut guard Ty Harris to leave Game 1 of the first round, she missed the next two games and played sparingly in the two after that. But she had a dramatic comeback in Game 4 of the semifinals Sunday, playing 30 minutes and scoring 20 points.
The Sun’s other guards — DiJonai Carrington, Marina Mabrey and Veronica Burton — combined for 29 points Sunday. The 49 combined points was the most the Sun’s guards have had in this series and matched what they scored in their first-round opener against the Indiana Fever.
Minnesota had the best defense against 3-point shooting in the regular season. And we saw how well that worked against the Sun especially in Game 3, where Connecticut was 3-of-20 from behind the arc.
But Harris’ reemergence in this series added another challenge for Minnesota.
The Lynx and the Sun have veterans with a significant amount of postseason experience. No one has more than Bonner, who has appeared in 86 career playoff games. Thomas has been in 46 and Brionna Jones 37.
Natisha Hiedeman leads Minnesota with 40 career playoff appearances. Fellow guards Courtney Williams (30) and Kayla McBride (25) are next.
Minnesota’s Cheryl Reeve and Connecticut’s Stephanie White are the past two winners of the WNBA’s Coach of the Year award. They faced each other in a previous Game 5 (the 2015 WNBA Finals) when White was Indiana’s coach.
With so little separating these teams in terms of leadership or experience, X factors could be unexpected, like Harris was Sunday for Connecticut.
Alanna Smith has had two double-digit scoring outings in the postseason for Minnesota, and she could be ready to step up again. Bridget Carleton had been consistent through the playoffs until Sunday’s 2-of-11 shooting game for four points, and might be ready for a bounce-back game for the Lynx.
For the Sun, Jones had a strong start to September, averaging 18.9 PPG over an eight-game stretch. In the seven games since, she has averaged 7.4 PPG, with only one double-digit scoring performance. Could she have a breakout game Tuesday?