Were guaranteed to see a Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff.
The 12-team format includes five spots for conference champions and seven at-large bids. With four power conferences left standing after the Pac-12 dissolved, a conference champion from the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West or Sun Belt will make the postseason.
There are a handful of teams who look to be a cut above the rest in those five conferences too. Here are the six teams we think have the best chance of representing the Group of Five in the first 12-team playoff.
After losing a close game to North Carolina for the second season in a row, App State stumbled last year. The Mountaineers were 3-4 before reeling off five straight wins to end the regular season.
This year, QB Joey Aguilar is back after throwing for over 3,700 yards and 33 TDs a season ago. Leading rusher Nate Noel transferred to Missouri, but Kanye Roberts is ready to be the full-time lead back. He averaged 5.7 yards a carry last season. The key to the offense will be a rebuilt offensive line that returns just one starter.
Four starters on the front seven are back for the defense, including linebacker Nate Johnson (7.5 sacks in 2023). Cornerback Ethan Johnson broke up 11 passes last season and may be the best defensive back in the Sun Belt.
A trip to Clemson looms in Week 2, but a win over Liberty at the end of September will be huge and James Madison is also on the schedule. The Sun Belt has improved dramatically over the past few seasons and its strength could boost the Mountaineers if they post an 11-1 season.
2023 was an odd year for Boise State. Thanks to a non-conference schedule that featured Washington, UCF and Memphis, the Broncos were 3-4 halfway through the season after a 31-30 loss to Colorado State. After that Boise State ended the season with four wins in its last five games to make the Mountain West title game. There, Boise State easily beat UNLV for its 15th conference title in school history.
Every starter from last years defense is back from a unit that showed serious improvement in November. That includes linebacker Andrew Simpson and defensive end Ahmed Hassanein. They combined for 33 tackles for loss a season ago.
The offense is boosted by the return of RB Ashton Jeanty (1,347 rushing yards, 19 total TDs) and the arrival of former five-star recruit Malachi Nelson. Hes the favorite to start at QB after Taylen Green’s transfer to Arkansas.
A Week 2 game at Oregon means Boise State likely wont go undefeated this year, but the Broncos have both Washington State and Oregon State at home. An 11-1 season and another Mountain West title would look really good to the selection committee given Boise States schedule strength.
The Flames made their first New Years Six bowl game a season ago after an undefeated regular season in 2023. Liberty dominated its Conference USA opponents on the way to a 13-0 season before a 45-6 blowout loss to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.
The recipe is much of the same again heading into 2024. QB Kaidon Salter (44 total TDs) thought about transferring but decided to stay at Liberty. RB Quinton Cooley is back too. He rushed for over 1,400 yards a season ago and had 16 scores on the ground. Coach Jamey Chadwells offense should be incredibly fun once again.
Liberty has far more financial strength than the other schools in C-USA and is set up for long-term success in the conference. The Flames will be favored to win the league title for a long time. But will last years New Years Six blowout give the committee pause? Liberty snuck ahead of Tulane in the final CFP standings despite its weak schedule and the schedule is not much better this season. The Sept. 28 game vs. Appalachian State could be a de facto playoff elimination contest.
Ten starters are back from a Memphis offense that was one of the best in the country in 2023. The Tigers averaged 39.4 points per game a season ago as QB Seth Henigan threw for 3,883 yards and 32 scores. The only starter who isnt back is RB Blake Watson (1,152 yards, 14 TDs), but hell be replaced by South Carolina transfer Mario Anderson. He rushed for over 700 yards on nearly five yards a carry in 2023.
With the offense likely to be just as good as it was in 2023, the onus is on the defense to improve to give Memphis a legitimate playoff shot. The Tigers allowed 29 points a game last season and gave up 168 points over a four-game stretch in October and November. Seven starters are back on that side of the ball.
Significant defensive improvement is also necessary for any playoff hopes to be realized because of the Tigers incredibly tough schedule in 2024. Memphis visits Florida State in 2024 and has conference road games at South Florida, UTSA and Tulane. If Memphis goes 12-1 or even 11-2 and wins the AAC title, theyll have a stellar resume.
The Green Wave will look a bit different in 2024. Former coach Willie Fritz is now at Houston and the offense needs a new signal caller to follow QB Michael Pratt after his stellar career. But theres plenty of reason to believe there wont be much drop-off in 2024.
Former Oregon QB Ty Thompson is the favorite to start ahead of last years backup Kai Horton. Thompson is a former four-star recruit who saw action in seven games a season ago. RB Makhi Hughes returns after rushing for 1,378 yards in 2023 and the offensive line brings back every single starter.
Fritzs replacement is former Troy coach Jon Sumrall. The Trojans went 23-4 in his two seasons as head coach and the longtime defensive assistant has always had solid defenses. September games against Kansas State, at Oklahoma and at Louisiana will tell us a lot about the Green Waves playoff chances.
The Roadrunners need to replace longtime starting QB Frank Harris heading into the 2024 season but there are plenty of reasons for optimism in UTSAs second season in the AAC. Owen McCown the son of former NFL QB Josh played in seven games a season ago due to Harris injuries and completed 74% of his passes. Hes ready to step in as the full-time starter.
RB Robert Henry (588 yards, 11 TDs) also returns, along with a solid receiving corps that should have enough depth to make up for the loss of WR Joshua Cephus (89 catches, 1,151 yards). The defense returns seven starters and held opposing QBs to a 56% completion percentage.
UTSA visits Texas in Week 3, but its conference schedule is very favorable. Memphis visits San Antonio and the Roadrunners dont have to play either Tulane or South Florida. Dont rule out a 10-win season and an AAC title game appearance.