Picking the NFL Coach of the Year isnt actually that hard.
Well, at least compared to betting markets involving players.
The extensive offerings require evaluation of dozens of players, whose production hinges on usage, play-calling, injuries and other factors. Meanwhile, we can rule out roughly half of the NFLs head coaches those with no chance of winning the award. Not because theyve done anything wrong, but, in many cases, theyve done so much right expectations are already too high.
What could Andy Reid, Nick Sirianni and John Harbaughs teams do to make voters believe it was the coach who should get the most credit?
Sure enough, that answer is so convoluted with hypotheticals that the three favorites to win Super Bowl LX are lined up at the bottom of the oddsboard for Coach of the Year.
What does it take to win?
The key word is expectations the X-factor built into the calculus for this betting market. The winner needs to overcome some negative elements on the way to team success, while not being overshadowed by the outstanding play of one of his players.
Example: Quarterback Jayden Daniels excellence last season took away just enough credit from the job Dan Quinn did in his first season with Washington.
Here are my favorite bets for NFL Coach of the Year at BetMGM:
The betting market is already aware of the hurdles that many teams face, giving their head coach the inside track at exceeding expectations. Unsurprisingly, new coaches like Ben Johnson, Mike Vrabel, Liam Coen and Aaron Glenn are the top choices in the market, since the reason they are first-year coaches is because things went so badly last season that the predecessors were fired.
While each should be improved, the trick is that the Bears, Patriots, Jaguars or Jets would need to make the playoffs for their head coach to win the award, since history says thats something of a prerequisite. The Bears could show promise and still be the fourth-best team in their division, while making the playoffs in the AFC means usurping one of the Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Bills, Ravens, Texans and Steelers the first six of which are favored to return to the postseason.
It doesnt help the Jaguars or Jets that very little has changed from a personnel perspective, while a Patriots playoff run likely comes with Drake Maye taking something of a leap. Meanwhile, the Raiders have a combination of low expectations (a win total of 6.5), and a veteran quarterback in Geno Smith who is good enough to affect change while not challenging for a prestigious award.
Kevin OConnell was a predictable winner last season because he was an offensive coach with a playoff team who just needed to guide Sam Darnold into enough production to replace Kirk Cousins. It was a prime case of providing voters an answer to the question, What did you do? when evaluating each candidates coaching job.
Like looking at last years record, its human nature for voters to factor in work that might have begun before this season. Canales got hired by the Panthers in 2024 because of his work with Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay, and weve already seen some development in Bryce Young, as the 2023 No. 1 pick accounted for 20 touchdowns to just five interceptions after being benched early last season. The narrative might be that Canales is coaching up Young a player talented enough to also have won a Heisman Trophy.
While the NFC is just as competitive as the AFC in regard to its seven playoff spots, the way to sneak into the postseason as a dark horse may come from winning the NFC South. Instead of backing Carolina to steal the division at around 4-to-1, if Canales gets even more out of Young, and the Panthers skip past the Falcons and Buccaneers, hell be hard to beat for Coach of the Year. Even if its close, with Canales 14-to-1 odds providing a much better payout, thats enough to make it an avenue worth taking.
The other way to win Coach of the Year is to make the leap from pretender to contender, while posting an outstanding record.
For many years during his tenure, Shanahans success came with the caveat that he had a loaded roster on both sides of the ball, and, as a result, he didnt win the award.
This year, the 49ers are coming off a season in which they missed the playoffs and have lost some big names, so the human beings voting for this award might be pleasantly surprised if the Niners win 13 or 14 games after a six-win season.
Luckily, as bettors, were aware the betting market has San Francisco projected for 10 wins so in reality, the probability of a big season is more like a mild hop than a huge leap. Plus, voters arent likely to notice the 49ers gaudy record will come against arguably the easiest schedule in the league.
Futures markets provide a variety of low-risk/high-reward ways to bet on a high-end outlier result for any team, since there is always a price worth playing for a potential result.
Aaron Rodgers searches out the spotlight, hoping for more close-ups than the directors on the most recent season of The Bear. But even if you dont think he is the answer for the Steelers this season, there isnt a 0% chance a team that made the playoffs last year with Russell Wilson can win a few more games with a former MVP.
Instead of betting on the Steelers to win the AFC (20-1) or the AFC North (+550), if they end up being good enough to do either, Tomlin is likely to get much of the credit for integrating the enigmatic Rodgers. Especially since voters might be willing to find any good reason to reward the longtime Pittsburgh coach (whos never won this award), as the respect Tomlin commands is the primary reason anyone thinks this relationship has any chance of working.
Lastly, something will inevitably happen that provides a hurdle for a head coach (like Kevin Stefanski managing the Browns quarterback situation in 2023) we couldnt have seen coming in the preseason. And thats what makes this volatile market one worth monitoring for betting opportunities throughout the season as well.
You can find more valuable bets and analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.